Search Results
House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing
Lower housing demand due to quarantine orders, slowing price growth and mortgage originations, and a historically high housing supply are all hitting the economy at the same time.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Containment Measures, Health and the Economy
While COVID-19-related restrictions in 2020 spurred short-term rises in unemployment, states with stricter measures saw faster labor market recoveries.
Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time
A novel index of physical contact exposure helps to identify the industries that are the most contact-intensive and might reopen later, as well as lower-contact industries that could reopen sooner.
Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations
Some jobs certainly require more close interaction with other folks than other jobs. Which occupations are the most interactive, and which states have higher shares of these jobs?
Journal Article
The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 2
Health and containment policies were effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19, but at a significant economic cost. State-level economic support policies were effective at mitigating this cost and helped further curb the spread of the virus.
Journal Article
Putting Recent Inflation in Historical Context
Prices for many items were depressed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we see the effect in current inflation reports.
Journal Article
The Geography of Housing Market Liquidity During the Great Recession
Using detailed micro data at the ZIP code level, this article explores the regional variation in housing market performance to account for the severity of the Great Recession. The granularity of the data, relative to a more traditional analysis at the county level, is useful for evaluating the performance of the housing market because credit and local macroeconomic variables are tied to housing valuations. The deterioration of the ability to transact (buy and sell) housing units, often referred to as housing liquidity, is an important link that connects housing outcomes with real and credit ...
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1
Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.
Journal Article
International Trade and the Dynamics of Manufacturing Activity
Manufacturing exports and production might decline in the near future.
Working Paper
Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?
Academic studies show that technical trading rules would have earned substantial excess returns over long periods in foreign exchange markets. However, the approach to risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory. We examine the ability of a wide range of models: CAPM, quadratic CAPM, downside risk CAPM, Carhart’s 4-factor model, the C-CAPM, an extended C-CAPM with durable consumption, Lustig-Verdelhan (LV) carry-trade factor model, and models including macroeconomic factors, and foreign exchange volatility, skewness and liquidity, to explain these technical trading returns. No model ...