Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1
Garriga, Carlos; Famiglietti, Matthew (2019-04-12)
Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 9

Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Garriga, Carlos; Famiglietti, Matthew (2019-04-15)
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10

Journal Article
The Role of Credit in the Exit of Firms Across U.S. Industries During the Great Recession
Leibovici, Fernando; Famiglietti, Matthew (2019-05-08)
During the Great Recession, firms in industries with higher shares of delinquent firms were more likely to go out of business.
Economic Synopses , Issue 12

Journal Article
Are U.S. Housing Markets Hot, Hot, Hot?
Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron; Famiglietti, Matthew (2019-08-20)
Some areas of the U.S. housing market are hotter now than during the 2002-06 boom.
Economic Synopses , Issue 21

Journal Article
International Trade and the Dynamics of Manufacturing Activity
Leibovici, Fernando; Famiglietti, Matthew (2019-11-15)
Manufacturing exports and production might decline in the near future.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25

Journal Article
Construction Permits and Future Housing Supply: Implications for 2020
Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron; Famiglietti, Matthew (2019-12-17)
A decline in housing permits and supply expectations may lead to softening in the 2020 housing market.
Economic Synopses , Issue 27

Journal Article
COVID-19’s Shock on Firms’ Liquidity and Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Great Recession
Leibovici, Fernando; Famiglietti, Matthew (2020-03-20)
As the pandemic continues, financially vulnerable firms might be at greater risk of closing.
Economic Synopses , Issue 7

Journal Article
Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods
Leibovici, Fernando; Famiglietti, Matthew (2020-05-28)
States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.
Economic Synopses , Issue 34

Journal Article
The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Leibovici, Fernando; Famiglietti, Matthew (2020-09-10)
Non-essential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses since the onset of COVID-19.
Economic Synopses , Issue 40

Journal Article
A Simple Evaluation of Two Decades of Inflation Targeting: Lessons for the New Monetary Policy Strategy
Garriga, Carlos; Famiglietti, Matthew (2021-01-29)
New Fed guidance could deliver more inflation outcomes above the current inflation target.
Economic Synopses , Issue 1 , Pages 1-3