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Report
A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables
The econometrics literature contains many alternative measures of goodness of fit, roughly analogous to R2, for use with equations with dichotomous dependent variables. There is, however, no consensus as to the measures' relative merits or about which ones should be reported in empirical work. This paper proposes a new measure that possesses several useful properties that the other measures lack. The new measure may be interpreted intuitively in a similar way to R2 in the linear regression context.
Journal Article
The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues
Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve-the spread between long- and short-term interest rates-is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past recessions, considerably less attention has been paid to the use of the yield curve as a forecasting tool in real time. This analysis seeks to fill that gap by offering practical guidelines on how best to construct the yield curve indicator and to interpret the measure in real time.
Report
Monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle
One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. The economic rationale for this forecasting power usually appeals to expectations of future interest rates, which affect the slope of the term structure. In this paper, we propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries. When monetary tightening is associated with a flattening of the term spread, it reduces net interest margin, which in turn makes lending less ...
Report
Taylor, Black and Scholes: series approximations and risk management pitfalls
Risk managers make frequent use of finite Taylor approximations to option pricing formulas, particularly of first and second order (delta and gamma). This paper shows that for a plausible range of parameter values, the Taylor series for the Black-Scholes formula diverges. Using a numerical technique developed in the paper, it is also shown that even when the series converges, finite approximations of very large order are generally necessary to achieve acceptable levels of accuracy. Implications for risk management and stress testing are discussed.
Journal Article
A prolegomenon to future capital requirements
Bank supervisors have made significant strides since 1980 in the area of capital requirements, and they are currently pursuing further refinements. This article looks beyond such developments at longer term supervisory goals. Abstracting to some extent from the current regulatory framework, the author attempts to delineate a set of fundamental principles for future work on capital requirements. He distinguishes minimum capital--an objective standard imposed by regulators across firms--from optimum capital--a subjective standard adopted by individual firms to cover their own risks-- and shows ...
Report
Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy
Several articles published in the 1990s have identified empirical relationships between the term structure of real and nominal interest rates, on one hand, and future real output and inflation, on the other. Among these are Mishkin (1990a), Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991), Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Fuhrer and Moore (1995). These articles demonstrate the existence of empirical predictive relationships, but the underlying economic reasons for the empirical regularities remain at least partly as puzzles. This paper presents a theoretical rational expectations model that shows how monetary ...
Journal Article
Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital
This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 6, "The role of capital regulation in bank supervision." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.
Report
How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States
Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We use recent econometric techniques for break testing to examine whether the empirical relationships are in fact stable. We consider continuous models, which predict either economic growth or inflation, and binary models, which predict either recessions or inflationary pressure. In each case, we draw on ...