Search Results
Working Paper
Debt maturity, risk, and asymmetric information
We test the implications of Flannery's (1986) and Diamond's (1991) models concerning the effects of risk and asymmetric information in determining debt maturity, and we examine the overall importance of informational asymmetries in debt maturity choices. We employ data on over 6,000 commercial loans from 53 large U.S. banks. Our results for low-risk firms are consistent with the predictions of both theoretical models, but our findings for high-risk firms conflict with the predictions of Diamond's model and with much of the empirical literature. Our findings also suggest a strong quantitative ...
Working Paper
A public finance analysis of multiple reserve requirements
This paper analyzes multiple reserve requirements of the type that have been imposed by a number of developing countries. We show that previous theoretical work on this topic has not succeeded in providing a social welfare rationale for the existence of multiple reserve requirements. We go on to present a model in which it is possible for a multiple reserves regime to improve social welfare relative to simpler regimes involving reserve requirements and/or deposit taxes. We demonstrate the empirical plausibility of our approach by providing a case study of Mexico, a country with extensive ...
Working Paper
Why do borrowers pledge collateral? new empirical evidence on the role of asymmetric information
An important theoretical literature motivates collateral as a mechanism that mitigates adverse selection, credit rationing, and other inefficiencies that arise when borrowers hold ex ante private information. There is no clear empirical evidence regarding the central implication of this literature?that a reduction in asymmetric information reduces the incidence of collateral. We exploit exogenous variation in lender information related to the adoption of an information technology that reduces ex ante private information, and compare collateral outcomes before and after adoption. Our results ...
Working Paper
The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model
In this paper we integrate Diamond's (1965) model of neoclassical production and capital with Wallace's (1984) model of monetary policy in order to study the real effects of two types of monetary policy actions: open market operations and changes in reserve requirements. We show that a permanent easing of open market or reserve policy can produce permanent increases in both the inflation rate and the level (but not the growth rate) of output. We also describe conditions under which the effects of these policies on real interest rates and output can be large relative to their effects on the ...
Journal Article
A primer and assessment of social security reform in Mexico
Recent projections of a number of countries with pay-as-you-go pension systems have shown significant future actuarial imbalances. As a consequence, several of these countries, including Mexico, are engaged in redesigning their pension systems. ; From the U.S. perspective, Mexico's reform is of particular interest because of the similarities of its program to some proposals for the U.S. system. The Mexican government claims that it has started a move to a fully funded system. As proof, it points out that since 1997 Mexico has adopted a privately managed defined-contribution system. However, a ...
Working Paper
A welfare rationale for multiple reserve requirements
Working Paper
On government credit programs
Credit rationing is a common feature of most developing economies. In response to it, the governments of these countries often operate extensive credit programs and lend, either directly or indirectly, to the private sector. We analyze the macroeconomic consequences of a typical government credit program in a small open economy. We show that such programs increase long-run production if the economy is in a development trap and that such programs often lead to endogenously arising aggregate volatility. On the other hand, they may eliminate certain indeterminacies created by endogenous credit ...
Working Paper
Debt maturity, risk, and asymmetric information
We test the implications of Flannery?s (1986) and Diamond?s (1991) models concerning the effects of risk and asymmetric information in determining debt maturity, and we examine the overall importance of informational asymmetries in debt maturity choices. We employ data from more than 6,000 commercial loans from 53 large U.S. banks. Our results for low-risk firms are consistent with the predictions of both theoretical models, but our findings for high-risk firms conflict with the predictions of Diamond?s model and with much of the empirical literature. Our findings also suggest a strong ...
Working Paper
Socially excessive bankruptcy costs and the benefits of interest rate ceilings on loans
The authors study the capital accumulation and welfare implications of ceilings on loan interest rates in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Binding ceilings on loan rates reduce the probability of bankruptcy. Lower bankruptcy rates result in lower bankruptcy and liquidation costs. The authors state conditions under which the resources freed by this cost-saving result increase the steady state capital stock, reduce steady state credit rationing, and raise the steady state welfare of all agents. The authors also argue that the conditions stated are likely to be satisfied in practice. ...