Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2011-05)
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area [MSA]-level data are summed to yield ...
Review , Volume 93 , Issue May

Journal Article
A winning combination? economic theory meets sports
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2009-01)
Satisfying a need to get out in the field, some economists are studying sports. Their topics have included racism in the NBA, coaches' maximization of their chances of winning, and the direction that soccer players and goalies should move during penalty kicks.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 10-13

Journal Article
So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2005-04)
If you've long suspected that the boss rewards not just hard work but good looks, you're right, based on research into the impact of beauty, weight and height on wages.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr , Pages 10-11

Journal Article
The effects of recessions across demographic groups
Wall, Howard J.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010-01)
The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this ...
Review , Volume 92 , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Changing trends in the labor force: a survey
Wheeler, Christopher H.; Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; DiCecio, Riccardo (2008-01)
The composition of the American workforce has changed dramatically over the past half century as a result of both the emergence of married women as a substantial component of the labor force and an increase in the number of minority workers. The aging of the population has contributed to this change as well. In this paper, the authors review the evidence of changing labor force participation rates, estimate the trends in labor force participation over the past 50 years, and find that aggregate participation has stabilized after a period of persistent increases. Moreover, they examine the ...
Review , Volume 90 , Issue Jan , Pages 47-62

Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2008-10)
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield ...
Regional Economic Development , Issue Oct , Pages 15-29

Journal Article
Slow and steady in St. Louis
Engemann, Kristie M.; Wall, Howard J. (2006-10)
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 16

Journal Article
What are the chances?
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2007-11)
National Economic Trends , Issue Nov

Journal Article
What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2006-01)
One study shows that Kenya and Hakim might have more trouble getting their resumes noticed than Allison and Brad do. But another study indicates that distinctively African-American names don't lead to worse economic outcomes in adulthood.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 10-11

Journal Article
Louisville's job growth lags on many fronts
Engemann, Kristie M.; Wall, Howard J. (2007-01)
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 16