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Journal Article
What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes
This article uses probability forecasts derived from options to assess evolving market uncertainty about Federal Reserve monetary policy actions in a variety of recent events and episodes. Options on federal funds futures contracts reveal a complete probability density function over possible Federal Reserve target rates, thus augmenting the expectations provided by federal funds futures contracts. Option-based forecasts are most useful when more than two federal funds target outcomes are plausible at an upcoming policy meeting.
Working Paper
Executive compensation at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Corporate governance-and executive-compensation arrangements in particular-should be an important component of the agenda to reform the housing GSEs. The GSEs' safety-and-soundness regulator-who is essentially the debtholders' and taxpayers' representative-must be admitted to the GSEs' boardroom in a way that is atypical of an ordinary publicly held company. This intrusion into the board's oversight of executive-compensation plans is justified given the GSEs' public purposes and their large potential cost to taxpayers. Prudent public policy requires greater supervisory control over executive ...
Journal Article
The foreclosure crisis in 2008: predatory lending or household overreaching?
At least early in the financial crisis, the high rate of foreclosures seemed to be due more to households' overreaching than to predatory lending. A disproportionate number of those being foreclosed on were well-educated, well-off and relatively young people.
Discussion Paper
Who pays for credit cards?
We model side payments in a competitive credit-card market. If competitive retailers charge a single (higher) price to cover the cost of accepting cards, banks must subsidize convenience users to prevent them from defecting to merchants who do not accept cards. The side payments will be financed by card users who roll over balances at interest if their subjective discount rates are high enough. Despite the feasibility of cross subsidies among cardholders, price discrimination without side payments is Pareto preferred because of the costliness of the card network--unless banks have other ...
Periodic Essay
Unsteady progress: income trends in the Federal Reserve's survey of consumer finances
Short essays related to research on understanding and strengthening the balance sheets of American households.
The Real State of Family Wealth: Will COVID-19 Worsen Racial, Educational and Generational Gaps in the U.S.?
A new quarterly assessment tracks the pandemic’s impact on wealth trends by demographic groups.
Journal Article
Price stability and the efficiency of the retail payments system
Journal Article
Recent developments in wholesale payments systems
Wholesale payments and settlement systems in G-10 countries have undergone significant change in recent years. Notably, central banks have sought to increase the safety and reliability of these systems. In this article, William R. Emmons describes two approaches that have been pursued. Significant progress has been achieved in strengthening (or "securing") many existing payments system arrangements based on net settlement. In addition, many new gross settlement systems have been created, and existing ones have been improved. The article also explores why private-sector financial ...
Working Paper
Banks vs. credit unions: dynamic competition in local markets
One interesting aspect of the financial services industry is that for-profit institutions such as commercial banks compete directly with not-for-profit financial intermediaries such as credit unions. In this article, we analyze competition among banks and between banks and credit unions using a dynamic model of spatial competition. The model allows for the co-existence of (for-profit) banks and (not-for-profit) credit unions. Using annual county-level data on banking market concentration and credit-union participation rates for the period 1989-96, we find empirical evidence of two-way ...
Working Paper
Cracks in the facade: American economic and financial structures after the boom
The United States experienced a historic boom during the late 1990s and briefly into the new millennium, highlighted by rapid economic and productivity growth, surging corporate profitability, sustained business investment in many areas, including high technology and telecommunications, and a soaring stock market. Many observers concluded that a "new era" had arrived. Meanwhile, the prestige of the Federal Reserve rose along with faith in the U.S. economy and its stock market. Deflation of the great boom brings with it many unanswered questions. Was there ever really a "new era" in the ...