Working Paper
Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?
Emery, Kenneth M.; Koenig, Evan F. (1992)
Working Papers , Paper 9214

Journal Article
Misleading indicators? Using the composite leading indicators to predict cyclical turning points
Emery, Kenneth M.; Koenig, Evan F. (1991-07)
The U.S. Department of Commerce composite index of leading indicators (CLI) is a widely cited and influential economic series. In this article, Evan F. Koenig and Kenneth M. Emery examine how well movements in the CLI predict business-cycle turning points. Using data that actually would have been available to a forecaster, Koenig and Emery find that the CLI has provided no reliable advance warning of recessions and expansions. Further, in interpreting movements in the CLI, simple rules of thumb have often performed as well as more sophisticated forecasting methodologies. ; While the evidence ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Jul , Pages 1-14

Journal Article
Investment and housing drive 1994 growth
Emery, Kenneth M. (1994-01)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jan , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
Inflation, real interest rates and the Fisher equation since 1983
Emery, Kenneth M. (1990)
Working Papers , Paper 9003

Journal Article
Do wages help predict inflation?
Emery, Kenneth M.; Chang, Chih-Ping (1996-01)
In the financial press, productivity-related wages are often cited as an inflation indicator. For example, recently slow rates of wage growth have been noted as a factor that will keep inflation rates low in the future. While inflation and wage growth do appear to be highly correlated over longer time periods, it is not clear whether movements in wage growth precede movements in inflation, thereby providing predictive content for future inflation. In this article, Kenneth Emery and Chih-Ping Chang examine the usefulness of wage growth as a predictor of inflation, as well as carry out a ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q I , Pages 2-9

Journal Article
The federal funds rate as an indicator of monetary policy: evidence from the 1980s
Emery, Kenneth M.; Balke, Nathan S. (1994-01)
Recently, several economists have argued that movements in the federal funds rate are a good proxy for changes in monetary policy. In this article, Nathan Balke and Kenneth Emery critically examine this view and the evidence supporting it. Using simple vector autoregressions, they find that before 1980 the correlations between the federal funds rate and other important macroeconomic variables are consistent with a traditional monetary policy interpretation of the federal funds rate. However, they show that after 1982 the relationships between the federal funds rate and other macroeconomic ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q I , Pages 1-15

Working Paper
Why the composite index of leading indicators doesn't lead
Emery, Kenneth M.; Koenig, Evan F. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9318

Journal Article
Do interest rates help predict inflation?
Emery, Kenneth M.; Koenig, Evan F. (1992-10)
Accurate forecasts of inflation are important to policymakers and to individuals who must make decisions on the basis of expectations about the future purchasing power of the dollar. ; Recent research on forecasting inflation has shown that interest rates, by themselves, may provide useful information about future inflation. In this article, Kenneth M. Emery and Evan F. Koenig investigate whether interest rates contain information about future inflation beyond that found in traditional inflation-forecasting models. In other words, does adding interest rates to traditional inflation models ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 1-17

Working Paper
The algebra of price stability
Emery, Kenneth M.; Balke, Nathan S. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9309

Working Paper
The information content of the paper-bill spread
Emery, Kenneth M. (1994)
Working Papers , Paper 9412