Journal Article
Understanding the price puzzle
Emery, Kenneth M.; Balke, Nathan S. (1994-10)
Recent developments in measuring the stance of monetary policy have highlighted an interesting puzzle--namely, that an unexpected tightening in monetary policy leads to an increase rather than a decrease in the price level. In this article, Nathan Balke and Kenneth Emery present evidence on the price puzzle and discuss possible explanations for it. ; Balke and Emery find that the most plausible explanation is that, during the 1960s and '70s, monetary policy was not implemented in a way that fully offset inflationary supply shocks. During this period, monetary policy would tighten in response ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 15-26

Working Paper
Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?
Emery, Kenneth M.; Koenig, Evan F. (1992)
Working Papers , Paper 9214

Working Paper
Inflation, real interest rates and the Fisher equation since 1983
Emery, Kenneth M. (1990)
Working Papers , Paper 9003

Working Paper
Why the composite index of leading indicators doesn't lead
Emery, Kenneth M.; Koenig, Evan F. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9318

Working Paper
The information content of the paper-bill spread
Emery, Kenneth M. (1994)
Working Papers , Paper 9412

Working Paper
The algebra of price stability
Emery, Kenneth M.; Balke, Nathan S. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9309

Journal Article
Controlling inflation: a historical perspective
Emery, Kenneth M. (1993-07)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 4-5

Journal Article
Is there a stable relationship between capacity utilization and inflation?
Emery, Kenneth M.; Chang, Chih-Ping (1997-01)
Many policymakers and financial market participants use the Federal Reserve's industrial capacity utilization rate as an indicator of future changes in inflation. During the past few years, however, the usefulness of the utilization rate as an inflation indicator has come under scrutiny. ; In this article, Kenneth Emery and Chih-Ping Chang examine capacity utilization's power to predict changes in inflation, with a focus on whether the relationship is stable over time. They find that while there was a positive forecasting relationship between capacity utilization and changes in consumer price ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q I , Pages 14-20

Journal Article
Do wages help predict inflation?
Emery, Kenneth M.; Chang, Chih-Ping (1996-01)
In the financial press, productivity-related wages are often cited as an inflation indicator. For example, recently slow rates of wage growth have been noted as a factor that will keep inflation rates low in the future. While inflation and wage growth do appear to be highly correlated over longer time periods, it is not clear whether movements in wage growth precede movements in inflation, thereby providing predictive content for future inflation. In this article, Kenneth Emery and Chih-Ping Chang examine the usefulness of wage growth as a predictor of inflation, as well as carry out a ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q I , Pages 2-9

Journal Article
Investment and housing drive 1994 growth
Emery, Kenneth M. (1994-01)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jan , Pages 1-4