Search Results
Journal Article
Are we running out of oil?
Journal Article
Recognizing economic shifts is key to effective policy
Working Paper
Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach
This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the joint performance of multivariate forecasts of economic variables. The methodology is illustrated by comparing the rankings of forecasters by the Wall Street Journal with the authors? alternative rankings. The results show that the methodology can provide useful insights as to the certainty of forecasts as well as the extent to which various forecasts are similar or different.
Journal Article
Bank deposits and credit as sources of systemic risk
There is little agreement on even the rudimentary definitions of a financial crisis, the sequence of events constituting a crisis, or the causes of these events. This article investigates the various theories of financial panics and crises with particular emphasis on the links between credit and deposits. ; The survey suggests that panics are not perfectly predictable, as some theories may suggest, but neither are they random events. Information asymmetries about banks ability to liquefy deposits were apparently a major contributing factor to banking panics in the past. In addition, financial ...
Journal Article
Mergers of publicly traded banking organizations revisited
In more than 3,844 mergers and acquisitions between 1989 and 1999, acquiring institutions purchased more than $3 trillion in assets. A number of reasons have been advanced for such a surge in acquisitions, including the need to consolidate to achieve cost savings and operational efficiencies, to be better able to compete in the global marketplace, or to provide for the controlled exit of inefficient firms from the financial services industry. ; This article explores the question of whether the various expected performance and earning benefits of mergers are in fact realized. It adds to the ...
Working Paper
The major supervisory initiatives post-FDICIA: Are they based on the goals of PCA? Should they be?
The prompt corrective action provisions in FDICIA 1991 provide the supervisors with an unambiguous goal: "to resolve the problems of insured depository institutions at the least possible long-term cost to the deposit insurance fund." Yet performance of the regulators in achieving this goal has been lacking in that substantial losses continue to be imposed on the insurance funds when banks fail. Is PCA misguided, or are there incentive defects in the law and how the requirements are being administered? This paper analyzes these issues in the context of recent proposals to reform the deposit ...
Conference Paper
Regulatory policies and financial stability