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Journal Article
Are we running out of oil?
Conference Paper
Capital regulation section: comments
Working Paper
Transparency, expectations, and forecasts
In 1994, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began to release statements after each meeting. This paper investigates whether the public?s views about the current path of the economy and of future policy have been affected by changes in the Federal Reserve?s communications policy as reflected in private sector?s forecasts of future economic conditions and policy moves. In particular, has the ability of private agents to predict where the economy is going improved since 1994? If so, on which dimensions has the ability to forecast improved? We find evidence that the individuals? forecasts ...
Working Paper
Resolving large financial intermediaries: banks versus housing enterprises
This paper examines the policy issues with respect to resolving the possible failure of housing enterprises Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The authors compare and contrast these issues with those raised in the context of large bank failures and also identify important differences in the extant supervisory authorities. Based on these discussions, they offer a number of policy suggestions designed to minimize the cost of resolution and protect taxpayers from loss should a large bank or housing enterprise fail.
Journal Article
An analysis of inefficiencies in banking: a stochastic cost frontier approach
This paper examines the properties of X-inefficiency and the relations of X-inefficiency with risk-taking and stock returns for U.S. banking firms. After controlling for scale differences, the average small size banking firm is found to be relatively less efficient than the average large firm. Small firms also exhibit higher variations in X-inefficiencies than their larger counterparts. While the average X-inefficiency appears to be declining over time, the rank orderings of X-inefficiency are found to be quite persistent. Furthermore, less efficient banking firms are found to be associated ...
Working Paper
Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach
This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the joint performance of multivariate forecasts of economic variables. The methodology is illustrated by comparing the rankings of forecasters by the Wall Street Journal with the authors? alternative rankings. The results show that the methodology can provide useful insights as to the certainty of forecasts as well as the extent to which various forecasts are similar or different.
Journal Article
Roundtable discussion: reflection on twenty years of bank regulatory reform
In 1986 the American Bankers Association asked five banking academics to assess and recommend policy options to improve the banking system's efficiency, performance, and safety. The report these five economists produced, Perspectives on Safe and Sound Banking: Past, Present, and Future, has in many ways served as a roadmap for ensuing bank regulatory reforms. In this roundtable discussion, each of the five authors reflects on the past twenty years and the current status of the banking industry and, in some cases, shares thoughts about the industry's future direction.