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Journal Article
Bank deposits and credit as sources of systemic risk
There is little agreement on even the rudimentary definitions of a financial crisis, the sequence of events constituting a crisis, or the causes of these events. This article investigates the various theories of financial panics and crises with particular emphasis on the links between credit and deposits. ; The survey suggests that panics are not perfectly predictable, as some theories may suggest, but neither are they random events. Information asymmetries about banks ability to liquefy deposits were apparently a major contributing factor to banking panics in the past. In addition, financial ...
Journal Article
Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys
If economic forecasts are to be used for decision making, then being able to evaluate their accuracy is essential. Assessing accuracy using single variables from a forecast is acceptable as a first pass, but this approach has inherent problems. This article addresses some of these problems by evaluating and comparing the general accuracy of a set of multivariate forecasts over time. ; Using the methodology developed in Eisenbeis, Waggoner, and Zha (2002), the authors compare the economic forecasts in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators Survey. The survey, published monthly since 1977, contains ...
Journal Article
Roundtable discussion: reflection on twenty years of bank regulatory reform
In 1986 the American Bankers Association asked five banking academics to assess and recommend policy options to improve the banking system's efficiency, performance, and safety. The report these five economists produced, Perspectives on Safe and Sound Banking: Past, Present, and Future, has in many ways served as a roadmap for ensuing bank regulatory reforms. In this roundtable discussion, each of the five authors reflects on the past twenty years and the current status of the banking industry and, in some cases, shares thoughts about the industry's future direction.
Journal Article
Transparency, expectations and forecasts
Many economists believe that a central bank?s transparency about its objectives, economic outlook, and policy changes affect the public?s views about future economic and financial conditions. In keeping with this theory, since 1994 the Federal Open Market Committee has gradually increased the transparency of its statements accompanying changes in the federal funds rate target. ; This article investigates whether private agents? ability to predict the economy?s direction has improved since 1994. The analysis focuses on forecasts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, gross domestic ...
Journal Article
International settlements: a new source of systemic risk?
Recent market developments have heightened concerns about the potential for systemic risk in the payments system. At the same time that markets are becoming more integrated and global in scope, they are becoming more segmented in the sense that there is a growing separation evolving between the clearing and settlement of transactions that raises the prospect of a need to invoke the safety net and introduces a possible distortion into the international payments system. As a consequence, both public-sector and private markets have given great attention to attempting to identify and control risk ...
Journal Article
Reforming deposit insurance and FDICIA
Current discussions about deposit insurance reform center on issues such as the size of insurance premiums, the size of the fund, and the size of the coverage limits-all issues that reflect a concern with how to allocate the losses arising from bank failures. The authors of this article argue that such issues, while important, do not affect the performance of the deposit insurance system nor should they be the focus of deposit insurance reform. They suggest that reform efforts should be directed toward strengthening the incentives to enforce the least cost resolution provisions of the Federal ...
Journal Article
Mergers of publicly traded banking organizations revisited
In more than 3,844 mergers and acquisitions between 1989 and 1999, acquiring institutions purchased more than $3 trillion in assets. A number of reasons have been advanced for such a surge in acquisitions, including the need to consolidate to achieve cost savings and operational efficiencies, to be better able to compete in the global marketplace, or to provide for the controlled exit of inefficient firms from the financial services industry. ; This article explores the question of whether the various expected performance and earning benefits of mergers are in fact realized. It adds to the ...
Journal Article
Atlanta Fed Conference on Fiscal Policy in Latin America
Fiscal policy is at the very core of the profound economic transformation under way in Latin America. While price stabilization and liberalizing reforms have placed regional economies in a much more competitive position over the past two decades, the need for additional reform efforts-so-called second-generation reforms in areas like fiscal policy-is increasingly apparent. ; Because sound fiscal policy is key to viable monetary policy and sustainable economic growth, few issues are as critical to the region's economic future. Recognizing the increasingly global setting in which the Federal ...
Journal Article
Bank crisis resolution and foreign-owned banks
In many countries in recent years, failure to efficiently resolve large insolvent banks has come at a high cost both to taxpayers and to the countries? aggregate income. The increasing entry of foreign banks has complicated the resolution process. ; This article explores some special problems in the efficient resolution of insolvent banks raised by cross border banking, particularly weighing the costs and benefits of foreign bank entry via branches versus subsidiary banks. These problems lie primarily in the cross country differences in both the closure rule and the deposit insurance ...
Journal Article
Are we running out of oil?