Search Results
Working Paper
When is the government spending multiplier large?
We argue that the government spending multiplier can be very large when the nominal interest rate is constant. We focus on a natural case in which the interest rate is constant, which is when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds. For the economies that we consider it is optimal to increase government spending in response to shocks that make the zero bound binding.
Working Paper
Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases
This paper investigates the consequences of an exogenous increase in U.S. government purchase. We find the in response to such a shock, employment, output, and nonresidential investment rise, while real wages, residential investment and consumption expenditures fall. The paper argues that a simple variant of neoclassical growth model which distinguishes between nonresidential and residential investment is consistent with this evidence.
Working Paper
Capital utilization and returns to scale
Working Paper
Expectations, traps and discretion
We argue that discretionary monetary policy exposes the economy to welfare-decreasing instability. It does so by creating the potential for private expectations about the response of monetary policy to exogenous shocks to be self-fulfilling. Among the many equilibria that are possible, some have good welfare properties. But, others exhibit welfare decreasing volatility in output and employment. We refer to the latter type of equilibria as expectation traps. In effect, our paper presents a new argument for commitment in monetary policy because commitment eliminates these bad equilibria. ...
Discussion Paper
Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?
Working Paper
The response of hours to a technology shock: evidence based on direct measures of technology
We investigate what happens to hours worked after a positive shock to technology, using the aggregate technology series computed in Basu, Fernald and Kimball (1999). We conclude that hours worked rise after such a shock.