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Journal Article
The federal government's budget surplus: Cause for celebration?
Projected surpluses in the federal government's budget have generated fanfare sometimes verging on euphoria. Because the federal government last had a surplus in 1969, a projected surplus for fiscal year 1998 and later years is being viewed as something of a milestone. Unlike policies of the last three decades that have at least paid lip service to lowering the deficit, policy options now may include ways to use the surplus. Some have called for lowering taxes and others for increasing expenditures or retiring federal government debt. ; This article discusses the importance of going beyond ...
Journal Article
Wildcat banking, banking panics, and free banking in the United States
Banks in the United States issued currency with no oversight of any kind by the federal goverment from 1837 to 1865. Many of these banks were part of "free banking" systems with no discretionary approval of entry into banking, and these banks issued notes that were used for payments in transactions just as Federal Reserve notes are today. There was no central bank or goverment insurance, and the ultimate guarantee of the value of a bank's notes was the value of the bank's assets. As the author indicates, these banknotes have similarities to some forms of electronic money. ; Free banking in ...
Journal Article
Preface: hedge funds: creators of risk?
Working Paper
Systematic and liquidity risk in subprime-mortgage backed securities
The misevaluation of risk in securitized financial products is central to understanding the financial crisis of 2007?8. This paper characterizes the evolution of factors affecting collateralized debt obligations based on subprime mortgages. A key feature of subprime-mortgage backed indices is that they are distinct in their vintage of issuance. Using a latent factor framework that incorporates this vintage effect, we show the increasing importance of a common factor on more senior tranches during the crisis. We examine this common factor and its relationship with spreads. We estimate the ...
Conference Paper
Vintage and credit rating: what matters in the ABX data during the credit crunch?
The mortgage backed securities market has dramatically declined during the credit crunch of 2007-2008. To understand the factors driving its demise we utilise a latent factor model representing common effects, asset rating effects, vintage of issuance effects and liquidity effects - extending the recent representation of CDO pricing in Longstaff and Rajan (2008). Common and liquidity effects are shown to have an increasing influence on the performance of the ABX-HE indices, with the role of vintage factors changing dramatically over the sample period of January 2006 to May 2008. Consistent ...
Working Paper
Banking reform
Working Paper
Expected returns to stock investments by angel investors in groups
Angel investors invest billions of dollars in thousands of entrepreneurial projects annually, far more than the number of firms that obtain venture capital. Previous research has calculated realized internal rates of return on angel investments, but empirical estimates of expected returns have not yet been produced. Although calculations of realized returns are a valuable contribution, expected returns, rather than realized returns, drive investment decisions. We use a new data set and statistical framework to produce the first empirical estimates of expected returns on angel investments. We ...
Working Paper
Returns to investors in stocks in new industries
We examine the returns to investors in publicly traded stock in new industries. We examine data from the United States on sellers of own-brand personal computers, airlines and airplane manufacturers, automobile manufacturers, railroads, and telegraphs. We find that a relatively small number of companies generate outstanding returns and many firms fail. Firms in new industries typically have high volatility of individual stocks' returns. Compared with indexes for the same period, expected returns of firms are higher for two industries, lower for one industry and roughly the same for two ...
Working Paper
Portable random number generators
Computers are deterministic devices, and a computer-generated random number is a contradiction in terms. As a result, computer-generated pseudorandom numbers are fraught with peril for the unwary. We summarize much that is known about the most well-known pseudorandom number generators: congruential generators. We also provide machine-independent programs to implement the generators in any language that has 32-bit signed integers-for example C, C++, and FORTRAN. Based on an extensive search, we provide parameter values better than those previously available.
Journal Article
The news in financial asset returns
The notion that financial asset returns are predictors of future economic activity is widespread, but detailed analyses provide little support for financial markets? ability to reveal future economic activity. Even though the evidence on various indicators used by different researchers is mixed, the authors of this article explore the notion that financial markets reveal useful information about future economic activity. ; This article examines and answers two questions: First, what is a good way of extracting information about future economic activity from asset prices? Second, do financial ...