Search Results
Journal Article
Liftoff and the Natural Rate of Interest
The natural rate is viewed in some circles as a useful concept for the FOMC in setting the federal funds rate.
Journal Article
Why the 2009 Recovery Act Didn’t Improve the Nation's Highways
Little of the Recovery Act's highway funds were actually spent on improving highways.
Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Journal Article
Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession
The auto sector continues to play an important role in understanding recessions.
Discussion Paper
Keynesian conundrum: multiplicity and time consistent stabilization
This paper identifies a novel form of dynamic inconsistency of stabilization policy in increasing returns models that generate multiple equilibria. We present a two-period version of the Benhabib-Farmer (1994) externalities model and derive closed-form solutions for all endogenous variables in every perfect foresight equilibrium. We provide conditions under which the stabilization policy that maximizes time zero consumer welfare is not time consistent. Furthermore, we characterize the time consistent stabilization policy. Our results cast doubts on the usefulness of government coordination of ...
How Quickly Does Fiscal Policy Get Implemented?
The response to the 2007-09 recession can provide a sense of timing when it comes to implementing fiscal policy.
Journal Article
Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, Unanticipated, and Severe Viral Outbreaks
What should guide a fiscal authority in conducting macroeconomic policy in the event of a severe viral outbreak?
Early Impact of States Halting Federal Jobless Benefits
Continuing claims for state unemployment insurance benefits appear to have fallen faster in states that have stopped accepting federal pandemic benefits.
Decomposing an Economic Impact into Its Local and Spillover Effects
An analysis of cost-of-living increases for Social Security shows a strong direct effect on income within a state where the recipient lives but little evidence of a spillover effect in other states.
Journal Article
So, Why Didn’t the 2009 Recovery Act Improve the Nation’s Highways and Bridges?
Although the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act) provided nearly $28 billion to state governments for improving U.S. highways, the highway system saw no significant improvement. For example, relative to the years before the act, the number of structurally deficient or functionally obsolete bridges was nearly unchanged, the number of workers on highway and bridge construction did not significantly increase, and the annual value of construction put in place for public highways barely budged. The author shows that as states spent Recovery Act highway grants, many ...