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Discussion Paper
Using Generative AI Models to Understand FOMC Monetary Policy Discussions
In an era increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence (AI), the public’s understanding of economic policy may be filtered through the lens of generative AI models (also called large language models or LLMs). Generative AI models offer the promise of quickly ingesting and interpreting large amounts of textual information.
Discussion Paper
The Effect of Sales-Tax Holidays on Consumer Spending
Over the past decade, many U.S. states have enacted policies that temporarily exempt consumer purchases of certain goods from state sales taxes. In this note, we investigate whether the pre-announced sales-tax holidays noticeably alter the spending behavior of consumers. Specifically, we investigate whether there are shifts in the level and/or composition of consumer spending before, during, and after these sales-tax holidays.
Discussion Paper
From Income to Consumption Inequality? Looking through the Lens of Motor Vehicle Purchases
In this note, we assess the pattern of consumption inequality using an alternative data source--namely, new motor vehicle purchases.
Working Paper
Incentives and prices for motor vehicles: what has been happening in recent years?
We address the construction of price indexes for consumer vehicles using data collected from a national sample of dealerships. The dataset contains highly disaggregate data on actual sales prices and quantities, along with information on customer cash rebates, financing terms, and much more. Using these data, we are able to capture the actual cash and financing incentives taken by consumers, and we demonstrate that their inclusion in measures of consumer vehicle prices is important. We also document other features of retail vehicle markets that interact and overlap with price measurement ...
Discussion Paper
Prices and Depreciation in the Market for Tablet Computers
Spurred by advances in electronic miniaturization and power efficiency, lightweight, powerful and inexpensive tablet computers entered the mass market in significant volumes in 2010. Since that time, sales of tablet computers have increased to account for over half of personal computer (PC) units sold worldwide.
Working Paper
Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year
This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use micro-level data to estimate time-varying aggregate demand curves for each vehicle. On the supply side, ...
Working Paper
From Transactions Data to Economic Statistics: Constructing Real-time, High-frequency, Geographic Measures of Consumer Spending
Access to timely information on consumer spending is important to economic policymakers. The Census Bureau's monthly retail trade survey is a primary source for monitoring consumer spending nationally, but it is not well suited to study localized or short-lived economic shocks. Moreover, lags in the publication of the Census estimates and subsequent, sometimes large, revisions diminish its usefulness for real-time analysis. Expanding the Census survey to include higher frequencies and subnational detail would be costly and would add substantially to respondent burden. We take an alternative ...