Search Results
Showing results 1 to 3 of approximately 3.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Monetary policy expectations and economic fluctuations at the zero lower bound
Using a panel of survey?based measures of future interest rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study the dynamic relationship between shocks to monetary policy expectations and fluctuations in economic activity and inflation. We propose a smallscale structured recursive vector autoregression (VAR) model to identify the macroeconomic effects of changes in expectations about monetary policy. Our results show that when interest rates are away from the zero?lower bound, a perception of higher future interest rates leads to a significant rise in current measures of inflation and a ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy expectations and economic fluctuations at the zero lower bound
We propose a recursive VAR model augmented with survey-based measures of future interest rates to identify the effects of forward guidance on the U.S. economy. Our results show that when interest rates are away from the zero lower bound (ZLB), an exogenous shift in the perception toward higher future interest rates leads to an increase in current economic activity. However, when policy rates fall to the ZLB, economic activity decreases following an upward revision to expected future interest rates. These findings are robust to alternative estimation frameworks, identification schemes and data ...
Working Paper
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
We propose a TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility for the unemployment rate, core inflation and the federal funds rate augmented with survey-based interest rate expectations and uncertainty and a FAVAR with a wider set of observable variables and alternative monetary policy measures in order to explore U.S. monetary policy, accounting for the zero lower bound. We find that a rise in monetary policy uncertainty increases unemployment and lowers core inflation; the effects on unemployment in particular are robust (a gradual 0.4 percentage point increase), lasting more than two years after the ...