Journal Article
Can Higher Gasoline Prices Set Off an Inflationary Spiral?
Cakir Melek, Nida; Dillon, Francis; Smith, Andrew Lee (2022-11-10)
In early 2022, with consumer price inflation already high, a spike in the price of gasoline increased public concerns that the U.S. economy could be in for a repeat of the inflationary spiral that gripped the nation in the 1970s and 1980s. During this period, energy price increases created an environment where rising inflation and rising inflation expectations reinforced one another until a deep economic contraction broke the feedback loop.Nida Çakır Melek, Francis M. Dillon, and A. Lee Smith assess the risk of a similar spiral in the current environment by exploring whether high inflation ...
Economic Review , Volume 107 , Issue no.4

Journal Article
Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023
Dillon, Francis; Smith, Andrew Lee; Cakir Melek, Nida (2023-02-15)
Gasoline prices can influence inflation both directly (by changing prices at the pump) and indirectly (by shaping consumers’ inflation expectations). Through these channels, gasoline prices have played an important role in the run-up and recent decline in inflation. Although gasoline prices have declined from their all-time highs, they are expected to remain relatively stable in 2023. As a result, gasoline prices are unlikely to deliver further reductions in either inflation or inflation expectations this year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 15, 2023 , Pages 4