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Discussion Paper
Conflicting Signals: Implications of Divergence in Surveys and Market-Based Measures of Policy Expectations
Divergent signals can arise between survey-based and market-derived measures of policy expectations. In such situations, there is an open question of how one might interpret these divergent signals.
Working Paper
The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation
This study examines the forecasting performance of inflation swaps and survey-based expectations for one-year inflation. Conducting this exercise helps determine if one set of expectations can provide a cleaner signal about future inflation. The study finds that, overall, inflation swaps more frequently provide better forecasts of future inflation. Previous studies that found poor performance of swaps were strongly influenced by liquidity issues during the financial crisis and the pandemic. When these periods are excluded, swaps have superior predictive ability. Our analysis suggests that ...
Working Paper
When it Rains it Pours: Cascading Uncertainty Shocks
We empirically document that serial uncertainty shocks are (1) common in the data and (2) have an increasingly stronger impact on the macroeconomy. In other words, a series of bad (positive) uncertainty shocks exacerbates the economic decline significantly. From a theoretical perspective, these findings are puzzling: existing benchmark models do not deliver the observed amplification. We show analytically that a state dependent precautionary motive with respect to uncertainty shocks is required. Our derivations suggest that the state dependent precautionary motive only shows up at fourth ...
Discussion Paper
A Simple Macro-Finance Measure of Risk Premia in Fed Funds Futures
In this Note, we use rolling covariances between real and nominal activity in a regression framework, combined with a model averaging approach, to uncover intuitive dynamics in the term premium.
Discussion Paper
The Treasury Tantrum of 2023
In the second half of last year, the 10-year Treasury yield skyrocketed from below 4 percent to above 5 percent, and then back down to 3.9 percent (Figure 1). On the way up, market commentary cited several key drivers for the rapid increase, including strong employment and inflation data, unexpectedly high Treasury issuance, and FOMC communications indicating that rates may need to be higher for longer.