Search Results
Discussion Paper
Measurement of “Computer Software and Accessories” Inflation
From November 2025 to March 2026, the "Computer Software and Accessories" category of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index made an unprecedented contribution to the rise in core and core goods inflation. Figure 1 shows the historical average since 2000 for core and core goods inflation while excluding software (blue bars) along with the contribution of software (gray bars).
Working Paper
The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates
This paper uses a natural experiment to measure the causal effect of an expected debt-financed fiscal stimulus on interest rates. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the expected US debt-to-GDP ratio leads to an increase of about 1-2 basis points in the longer-run neutral rate (r∗) and of about 2–3 basis points in the 10-year Treasury term premium. Our results validate estimates from a common time-series approach that regresses long-term forward interest rates on long-term projections of government debt, where the exclusion restriction does not apply.
Working Paper
The Response of Equity Yields to a Long-Run Shock
We study how macroeconomic developments affect asset prices by analyzing the response of equity yields to a well-identified long-run growth shock. Using synthetic equity yield data from Giglio et al. (2024), we show that a positive long-run shock steepens the equity yield curve by increasing expected dividend growth while leaving discount rates largely unchanged. We examine how the investment driving this growth is financed and how yields respond across value and growth firms. Growth-firm yields respond more strongly than value-firm yields, reflecting larger changes in expected dividend ...
Working Paper
The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy
In this study I examine the welfare implications of monetary policy by constructing a novel New Keynesian model that properly accounts for asset pricing facts. I find that the Ramsey optimal monetary policy yields an inflation rate above 3.5% and inflation volatility close to 1.5%. The same model calibrated to a counterfactually low equity premium implies an optimal inflation rate close to zero and inflation volatility less than 10 basis points, consistent with much of the existing literature. Relatively higher optimal inflation is due to the greater welfare costs of recessions associated ...
Discussion Paper
A Simple Macro-Finance Measure of Risk Premia in Fed Funds Futures
In this Note, we use rolling covariances between real and nominal activity in a regression framework, combined with a model averaging approach, to uncover intuitive dynamics in the term premium.
Discussion Paper
Conflicting Signals: Implications of Divergence in Surveys and Market-Based Measures of Policy Expectations
Divergent signals can arise between survey-based and market-derived measures of policy expectations. In such situations, there is an open question of how one might interpret these divergent signals.