Search Results
Working Paper
Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts
Forecasts are a central component of policy making; the Federal Reserve''s forecasts are published in a document called the Greenbook. Previous studies of the Greenbook''s inflation forecasts have found them to be rationalizable but asymmetric if considering particular sub-periods, e.g., before and after the Volcker appointment. In these papers, forecasts are analyzed in isolation, assuming policymakers value them independently. We analyze the Greenbook fore- casts in a framework in which the forecast errors are allowed to interact. We find that allowing the losses to interact makes the ...
Journal Article
Participation dynamics: the more the merrier
Working Paper
Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain
Since Gal [1999], long-run restricted VARs have become the standard for identifying the effects of technology shocks. In a recent paper, Francis et al. [2008] proposed an alternative to identify technology as the shock that maximizes the forecast-error variance share of labor productivity at long horizons. In this paper, we propose a variant of the Max Share identification, which focuses on maximizing the variance share of labor productivity in the frequency domain. We consider the responses to technology shocks identified from various frequency bands. Two distinct technology shocks emerge. ...
Working Paper
An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom
We estimate the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) on United Kingdom data. Our estimates suggest that price stickiness is a more important source of nominal rigidity in the U.K. than wage stickiness. Our estimates of parameters governing investment behavior are only well behaved when post-1979 observations are included, which reflects government policies until the late 1970s that obstructed the influence of market forces on investment.
Working Paper
Institutional causes of macroeconomic volatility
In this paper we investigate the relation between the quality of institutions and macroeconomic volatility. Using instrumental variable regressions, we show that higher barriers to entry lead to higher volatility. In particular, a one standard deviation increase in entry costs increases the standard deviation of output growth by roughly 40% of its average value in our sample. To the contrary, property rights protection has no statistically significant effect on volatility.
Journal Article
New monetary policy tools?
Journal Article
Why income per worker differs worldwide
A higher entry cost distorts the industry structure and the allocation of productive factors across firms, which results in lower total factor productivity and output per worker.
Working Paper
The great inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: reconciling policy decisions and data outcomes
We argue that the Great Inflation experienced by both the United Kingdom and the United States in the 1970s has an explanation valid for both countries. The explanation does not appeal to common shocks or to exchange rate linkages, but to the common doctrine underlying the systematic monetary policy choices in each country. The nonmonetary approach to inflation control that was already influential in the United Kingdom came to be adopted by the United States during the 1970s. We document our position by examining official policymaking doctrine in the United Kingdom and the United States in ...