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Journal Article
Bond market inflation credibility
Working Paper
The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity
A study of the effect of disinflation policies on monetary velocity, which shows a systematic relation between unexpected changes in the money-income relationship and changes in the trends of inflation rates, and which concludes that the failure to commit to a stable price policy tends to destabilize the economy.
Journal Article
The base money paradox
Journal Article
Monetarism is dead; long live the quantity theory
Journal Article
Money and deflation in Japan
Journal Article
Deficits and monetary growth
Working Paper
U.S. official forecasts of Group of Seven economic performance, 1976-90
In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Treasury Department forecasts of real growth and inflation from 1976 to 1990 for the Group of Seven (G-7) economies. The accuracy of these forecasts is measured against the standard of actual real world growth and inflation as subsequently published in the Treasury's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The primary comparison is to forecasts made by the OECD for each of the G-7 nations, but for the United States and Canada, we compare the forecasts to those made by the Blue Chip consensus and the Federal Reserve 'Greenbook'.
Journal Article
Disentangling monetary and fiscal policy
Journal Article
CBO and OMB projections, adjusted for inflation, show federal budget deficit under control
Federal budget deficits continue to dominate discussions of the short-term economic future of the United States. This article by William G. Dewald stands in stark contrast to the aura of pessimism that pervades most such discussions. Dewalds optimism derives from the inflation adjustment factors he applies to the CBO and OMB deficit projections based on the 1986 Congressional Budget Resolution. He insists that pessimism about deficits stems from a tendency to focus on nominal rather than real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) deficits. Inflation mitigates the burden of a given nominal deficit in two ...
Journal Article
M2 velocity looks to be on a new track