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Report
The great escape? A quantitative evaluation of the Fed’s liquidity facilities
Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Del Negro, Marco; Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro; Ferrero, Andrea (2011)
We introduce liquidity frictions into an otherwise standard DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities and ask: Can a shock to the liquidity of private paper lead to a collapse in short-term nominal interest rates and a recession like the one associated with the 2008 U.S. financial crisis? Once the nominal interest rate reaches the zero bound, what are the effects of interventions in which the government provides liquidity in exchange for illiquid private paper? We find that the effects of the liquidity shock can be large, and we show some numerical examples in which the liquidity facilities ...
Staff Reports , Paper 520

Report
Estimating HANK for Central Banks
Acharya, Sushant; Chen, William; Del Negro, Marco; Dogra, Keshav; Gleich, Aidan; Goyal, Shlok; Matlin, Ethan; Lee, Donggyu; Sarfati, Reca; Sengupta, Sikata (2023-08-01)
We provide a toolkit for efficient online estimation of heterogeneous agent (HA) New Keynesian (NK) models based on Sequential Monte Carlo methods. We use this toolkit to compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of a prominent HANK model, Bayer et al. (2022), to that of the representative agent (RA) NK model of Smets and Wouters (2007, SW). We find that HANK’s accuracy for real activity variables is notably inferior to that of SW. The results for consumption in particular are disappointing since the main difference between RANK and HANK is the replacement of the RA Euler equation with ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1071

Discussion Paper
Tax buyouts: raising government revenue without distorting work decisions
Perri, Fabrizio; Schivardi, Fabiano; Del Negro, Marco (2010)
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 10-4

Discussion Paper
Is the Green Transition Inflationary?
Del Negro, Marco; di Giovanni, Julian; Dogra, Keshav (2023-02-14)
Are policies aimed at fighting climate change inflationary? In a new staff report we use a simple model to argue that this does not have to be the case. The model suggests that climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation but may generate a trade-off between inflation and employment objectives. The presence and size of this trade-off depends on how flexible prices are in the “dirty” and “green” sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and on whether climate policies consist of taxes or subsidies.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230214

Discussion Paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Normalization
Grasing, Jamie; Rosa, Carlo; Frame, W. Scott; Malin, Benjamin A.; Cavallo, Michele; Del Negro, Marco (2018-01-09)
In the wake of the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve dramatically increased the size of its balance sheet—from about $900 billion at the end of 2007 to about $4.5 trillion today. At its September 2017 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that—effective October 2017—it would initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 addendum to the FOMC’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180109

Report
Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian models
Giannoni, Marc; Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank (2013)
It has been argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent great recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a modest and protracted decline in inflation following the rise in financial stress in the fourth quarter of 2008. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary ...
Staff Reports , Paper 618

Report
Inflation dynamics in a small open-economy model under inflation targeting: some evidence from Chile
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank (2008)
This paper estimates a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, specified along the lines of Gal and Monacelli (2005) and Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), using Chilean data for the full inflation-targeting period of 1999 to 2007. We study the specification of the policy rule followed by the Central Bank of Chile, the dynamic response of inflation to domestic and external shocks, and the change in these dynamics under different policy parameters. We use the DSGE-VAR methodology from our earlier work (2007) to assess the robustness of the conclusion to the presence ...
Staff Reports , Paper 329

Report
Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization
Grasing, Jamie; Rosa, Carlo; Frame, W. Scott; Malin, Benjamin A.; Cavallo, Michele; Del Negro, Marco (2018-01-01)
The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 ...
Staff Reports , Paper 833

Discussion Paper
On the Distributional Consequences of Responding Aggressively to Inflation
Del Negro, Marco; Dogra, Keshav; Gundam, Pranay; Lee, Donggyu; Pacula, Brian (2024-07-03)
This post discusses the distributional consequences of an aggressive policy response to inflation using a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model. We find that, when facing demand shocks, stabilizing inflation and real activity go hand in hand, with very large benefits for households at the bottom of the wealth distribution. The converse is true however when facing supply shocks: stabilizing inflation makes real outcomes more volatile, especially for poorer households. We conclude that distributional considerations make it much more important for policy to take into account the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240703

Discussion Paper
The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast
Eusepi, Stefano; Cocci, Matthew; Shahanaghi, Sara; Giannoni, Marc; Del Negro, Marco (2014-09-26)
The U.S. economy has been in a gradual but slow recovery. Will the future be more of the same? This post presents the current forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) DSGE model, described in our earlier “Bird’s Eye View” post, and discusses the driving forces behind the forecasts. Find the code used for estimating the model and producing all the charts in this blog series here. (We should reiterate that these are not the official New York Fed staff forecasts, but only an input to the overall forecasting process at the Bank.)
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140926

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