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Journal Article
Do the benefits of college still outweigh the costs?
In recent years, students have been paying more to attend college and earning less upon graduation?trends that have led many observers to question whether a college education remains a good investment. However, an analysis of the economic returns to college since the 1970s demonstrates that the benefits of both a bachelor?s degree and an associate?s degree still tend to outweigh the costs, with both degrees earning a return of about 15 percent over the past decade. The return has remained high in spite of rising tuition and falling earnings because the wages of those without a college degree ...
Journal Article
Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?
According to numerous accounts, the Great Recession has left many recent college graduates struggling to find jobs that utilize their education. However, a look at the data on the employment outcomes for recent graduates over the past two decades suggests that such difficulties are not a new phenomenon: individuals just beginning their careers often need time to transition into the labor market. Still, the percentage who are unemployed or ?underemployed??working in a job that typically does not require a bachelor?s degree?has risen, particularly since the 2001 recession. Moreover, the quality ...
Journal Article
A leaner, more skilled U.S. manufacturing workforce
While the U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted sharply since the early 1980s, employment in high-skill manufacturing occupations has risen by an impressive 37 percent. An investigation of the growth in high-skill manufacturing jobs reveals that virtually all of the nation's industries have shared in this trend. Moreover, skill upgrading has occurred in all parts of the country, even those experiencing severe employment losses.
Journal Article
The causes and consequences of Puerto Rico's declining population
Puerto Rico?s population has been falling for nearly a decade, and the pace of decline has accelerated in recent years. Although a slowdown in the island?s birthrate has contributed to this decline, a surge in the out-migration of its citizens has been a more important factor. The exodus?which includes a large share of younger people?has hastened population aging, but it has not necessarily led to a ?brain drain.? To counter its population loss, Puerto Rico must not only adopt measures to shore up its economy and expand job opportunities, but also enact fiscal reforms and improve the island?s ...
Journal Article
Is upstate New York showing signs of a turnaround?
Upstate New York may have shown signs of a turnaround in 1997 and 1998, but its economic performance is still well below that of the nation and New York State as a whole.
Journal Article
The recession's impact on the state budgets of New York and New Jersey
In the wake of the most recent U.S. recession, both New York State and New Jersey have faced multibillion-dollar budget gaps. An analysis of the makeup of their budgets reveals that the states' heavy reliance on personal income taxes--particularly from high-wage earners in the finance sector--has exacerbated revenue shortfalls. To close their budget gaps, New York and New Jersey have had to make difficult choices about tax increases and service cuts. In the future, the states might take steps to avert such budget quandaries by establishing "rainy day" funds or restructuring taxes to make ...
Journal Article
Job polarization and rising inequality in the nation and the New York-northern New Jersey region
Since the 1980s, employment opportunities in both the United States and the New York?northern New Jersey region have become increasingly polarized. While technological advances and globalization have created new jobs for workers at the high end of the skill spectrum and largely spared the service jobs of workers at the low end, these forces have displaced many jobs involving routine tasks?traditionally the sphere of middle-skill workers. Moreover, these same forces have pushed up wages for high-skill workers disproportionately, contributing to increased wage inequality. The rise in inequality ...
Journal Article
New measures of economic growth and productivity in upstate New York
Newly available measures of GDP at the metropolitan area level now afford a more comprehensive view of regional economic activity. An analysis of upstate New York's economic performance using these measures points to below-average output growth between 2001 and 2006 along with productivity levels and productivity growth below the U.S. average. The region's performance overall, however, is somewhat better than that of many manufacturing-oriented metro areas in the Great Lakes region.
Journal Article
The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business surveys often give early signals of the direction and magnitude of economic activity. One release, the relatively new Empire State Manufacturing Survey, is demonstrating an ability to provide information ahead of U.S. production and employment trends. In fact, the predictive power of this survey appears to be at least equal to that of two established manufacturing surveys. This issue is part of the Second District Highlights series.
Journal Article
How severe was the credit cycle in the New York-northern New Jersey region?
U.S. households accumulated record-high levels of debt in the 2000s and then began a process of deleveraging following the Great Recession and financial crisis. However, the magnitude of these swings in the use of credit varied considerably within the United States. An analysis of trends in household debt over the past decade shows that compared with the nation as a whole, the New York?northern New Jersey region experienced a relatively mild "credit cycle," although pockets of financial stress exist.