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Journal Article
How fast is modern economic growth?
Journal Article
Interpreting procyclical productivity: evidence from a cross-nation cross-industry panel
We use an international panel data set of value added by industry to see if labor productivity is procyclical in response to demand shocks. It is: holding fixed our proxy for supply-side factors - the value added levels of an industry in other nations - industry-level productivity rises when value added in the rest of manufacturing rises. Moreover, increases in unemployment are associated with a lowered degree of procyclicality in Europe. This suggests that procyclical productivity arises primarily from "labor hoarding" by firms in the U.S. that wish to avoid future training costs and ...
Journal Article
The budget deficit
Conference Paper
Macroeconomic policy and long-run growth
Journal Article
The 'new economy' : background, historical perspective, questions, and speculations
In a presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City?s 2001 symposium, ?Economic Policy for the Information Economy,? Professor J. Bradford DeLong of the University of California-Berkeley, and Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers suggested that any attempt to analyze the meaning and importance of the "new economy" must grapple with four questions:> First, in the long run, how important will ongoing technological revolutions in data processing and data communications turn out to be? Second, what does the crash of the Nasdaq tell us about the future of the new economy? Third, how ...
Conference Paper
America's historical experience with low inflation
The inflation of the 1970s was a marked deviation from America's typical peacetime historical pattern as a hard-money country. We should expect America to continue to be a hard-money--low inflation--country in the future, at least in peacetime. The low rate of future inflation that we thus forecast changes the balance of macroeconomic risks and opportunities. The risk of debt-deflation-mediated recessions is somewhat higher because a low trend rate of goods-and-services price index inflation somewhat increases the changes of deflation. But it does not raise such risks as much as one might ...