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Journal Article
Relating commodity prices to underlying inflation: the role of expectations
Temporary supply factors may boost some commodity prices?a drought in the Midwest can jolt food costs, or a conflict in the Middle East might propel oil higher. These, in turn, can increase the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the headline inflation rate. ; Because central bank anti-inflation measures sometimes take a long time to affect prices, policymakers don?t necessarily react to short-term fluctuations in headline inflation (an overall rate that?s not seasonally adjusted). In fact, the mandate of many inflation-targeting central banks is to aim to keep headline inflation at a ...
Working Paper
Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account
What is the marginal effect of an increase in the private sector debt-to-GDP ratio on the probability of a banking crisis? This paper shows that the marginal effect of rising debt levels depends on an economy's external position. When the current account is in surplus or in balance, the marginal effect of an increase in debt is rather small; a 10 percentage point increase in the private sector debt-to-GDP ratio increases the probability of a crisis by about 1 to 2 percentage points. However, when the economy is running a sizable current account deficit, implying that any increase in the debt ...
Working Paper
Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets
This paper investigates the effect of international financial integration on international business cycle co-movement. We first show with a reduced form empirical approach how capital market integration (equity) has a negative effect on business cycle co-movement while credit market integration (debt) has a positive effect. We then construct a model that can replicate these empirical results.> ; In the model, capital market integration is modeled as crossborder equity ownership and involves wealth effects. Credit market integration is modeled as cross-border borrowing and lending between ...
Discussion Paper
Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations
This paper develops a method for measuring the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations that does not require estimates of long-run inflation expectations. Such estimates exist for only a few developed economies, and even then only a short time series is available. By not requiring estimates of long-term inflation expectations, this method is able to measure the anchoring of inflation expectations in sixty-four different developed and developing countries. In addition, with rolling-window estimations we can measure the anchoring of expectations across time within a country, and thus we ...
Swap lines curbed global dollar shortages, appreciation during COVID-19 crisis
During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
Journal Article
Current account surplus may damp the effects of China’s credit boom
In contrast to similar credit expansions in the euro periphery in the 2000s and East Asia in the 1990s, China?s credit boom is far less likely to end in a dramatic bust because it?s financed by domestic savings.
Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Journal Article
China’s Capital Controls Appear to Arrest Flight, Stabilize Currency
China?s yuan and balance of payments appear to have stabilized by early 2017. Controls on capital outflows may have been a key factor that averted a full-blown financial crisis in the country.
Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies
Asset Prices, Leverage and Portfolio Rebalancing Drive Global Capital Flows Cycle
The amount of leverage—borrowed funds relative to the value of underlying assets—increases for risky holdings during downturns, motivating their ultimate sale to achieve a more secure financial position. The opposite occurs during upswings, as risky assets gain favor.