Search Results
Speech
Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality
Speech to Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, San Francisco, CA, June 24, 2024, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Working Paper
Shocks and Adjustments
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide factor markets (as in Chari et al. 2000) or firm-specific factor markets (as in Woodford 2005). Sectoral specificity induces within-sector strategic substitutability and across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two ...
Working Paper
Beyond Kuznets: persistent regional inequality in China
Regional inequality in China appears to be persistent and even growing in the past two decades. We study potential offsetting factors and interprovincial migration to shed light on the sources of this persistence. We find that some of the inequality could be attributed to differences in quality of labor, industry composition, and geographical location of provinces. We also demonstrate that interprovincial migration, while driven in part by wage differences across provinces, does not offset these differences. Finally, we find that interprovincial redistribution did not help offset regional ...
Speech
Monetary Strategies in Practice
Slides presented during a policy panel discussion, "Monetary Strategies in Practice", at the Hoover Institution?s Monetary Policy Conference 2019, Strategies for Monetary Policy, Stanford, California, Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 3, 2019.
Journal Article
Retirement savings and decision errors: lessons from behavioral economics
Long gone are the days when most American workers could rely on their employers to manage their retirement savings. Today, most people handle their retirement portfolios themselves, gaining the right and responsibility to determine their own best strategies. Research on retirement planning suggests, however, that many fall short of consensus targets for optimal savings and investment. While part of the shortfall is explained by information gaps and income constraints, research in behavioral economics suggests that "decision errors," arising out of human tendencies such as procrastination, ...
Journal Article
The future of Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Disability Insurance is projected to be insolvent before the end of the decade. How best to restore the program to long-term financial health depends on what has been driving its rapid growth. Demographic shifts and other predictable factors explain part of the increase. But a sizable share reflects increasing participation in the program across population groups. Curbing this growth is important for putting the program back on a sustainable fiscal path.
Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
Working Paper
Aggregate real wages: macro fluctuations and micro drivers
Using data from the Current Population Survey from 1980 through 2010 we examine what drives variation and cyclicality in the growth rate of real wages over time. We employ a novel decomposition technique that allows us to divide the time series for median weekly earnings growth into the part associated with the wage growth of persons employed at the beginning and end of the period (the wage growth effect) and the part associated with changes in the composition of earners (the composition effect). The relative importance of these two effects varies widely over the business cycle. When the ...
Journal Article
Jobless recovery redux?
Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs. We pay particular attention to how these indicators compare with data from previous episodes of recession and recovery. Our analysis generally supports ...
Working Paper
Disability Benefit Growth and Disability Reform in the U.S.: Lessons from Other OECD Nations
Unsustainable growth in program costs and beneficiaries, together with a growing recognition that even people with severe impairments can work, led to fundamental disability policy reforms in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Great Britain. In Australia, rapid growth in disability recipiency led to more modest reforms. Here we describe the factors driving unsustainable DI program growth in the U.S., show their similarity to the factors that led to unsustainable growth in these other four OECD countries, and discuss the reforms each country implemented to regain control over their cash transfer ...