Search Results
Journal Article
On recognizing inflation
Forecasters experienced considerable difficulty in recognizing rising inflation and predicting its intensity in 1972-82. Possible explanations discussed are: 1) unpredictable supply shocks, 2) excessive attention to nonmonetary developments, and 3) actual money growth overshooting its targeted growth rate.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1977 : a persistent but gradual expansion
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
Forecasts 1976 : recovery but no bicentennial boom
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
The U.S. productivity slowdown: what the experts say
Measured U.S. productivity growth has slowed significantly since 1973; moreover, measured U.S. productivity continues to grow at a slower rate than that of our major trading partners. A number of potential explanations of the slowdown are currently being debated in the economics literature. These explanations are discussed in the article.
Journal Article
The changing labor force: some provocative findings
Female labor force participation rates have been rising rapidly since 1950 while male participation rates (especially for males 55 years and older) have been falling over much of that time. Analysis of participation rates also indicates (1) that the Reagan administrations reductions in marginal tax rates after 1981 had no apparent influence on labor force participation; and (2) that the effects of the so-called discouraged worker effect on labor force participation have been relatively weak.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1979 : slow growth, continued inflation, but no recession
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
The case of the reluctant recovery
Anecdotal evidence has it that the 1990-91 downturn was a predominantly white-collar, or middle management, recession. The data, however, show that the recession affected virtually all occupational groups. Moreover, by standards of past recessions, the 1990-91 downturn was relatively mild. It is the failure of employment to recover that is unusual. Evidence presented here indicates that the economys behavior results from a blend of cyclical and structural factors, with the structural factors delaying the recovery.
Journal Article
Is saving too low in the United States?
Many observers contend that the U.S. savings rate has declined in recent years and that it lags behind the savings rates of our trading partners. This article surveys different methods of measuring savings (and problems with these methods) and finds that U.S. saving may not be as low as is popularly believed.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1974
Journal Article
On labor market indicators
An abstract for this article is not available.