Search Results
Journal Article
Public investment and economic growth
Working Paper
An employment pressure index as an alternative measure of labor market conditions
Much attention has been devoted to the peculiar behavior of the unemployment rate from 1969 to 1973.
Working Paper
Measures of saving as indicators of economic growth
This paper contends that National Income Accounts (NIA) saving rates have been sending out misleading signals about the U.S. economy in the 1980s. The individuals' saving rate from the flow-of-funds accounts (FFA) is shown to be a much better indicator of resources available for future economic growth.
Working Paper
On recognizing inflation
Forecasters experienced considerable difficulty in recognizing rising inflation and predicting its intensity in 1972-82. Possible explanations discussed are: 1) unpredictable supply shocks, 2) excessive attention to nonmonetary developments, and 3) actual money growth overshooting its targeted growth rate. ; A version of this work was published in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's Economic Review, 1988, V. 74, No. 4
Working Paper
The determinants of labor force participation : an empirical analysis
Before the mid-1960's economists generally accepted, with two major exceptions, the neoclassical theory of aggregate labor supply, i.e., the theory that the number or workers supplied to the market varied with wages, population, and work preferences, with work preferences and population treated as exogenous and outside the realm of economics.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1979 : slow growth, continued inflation, but no recession
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
The case of the reluctant recovery
Anecdotal evidence has it that the 1990-91 downturn was a predominantly white-collar, or middle management, recession. The data, however, show that the recession affected virtually all occupational groups. Moreover, by standards of past recessions, the 1990-91 downturn was relatively mild. It is the failure of employment to recover that is unusual. Evidence presented here indicates that the economys behavior results from a blend of cyclical and structural factors, with the structural factors delaying the recovery.
Journal Article
Is saving too low in the United States?
Many observers contend that the U.S. savings rate has declined in recent years and that it lags behind the savings rates of our trading partners. This article surveys different methods of measuring savings (and problems with these methods) and finds that U.S. saving may not be as low as is popularly believed.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1974
Journal Article
On labor market indicators
An abstract for this article is not available.