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Journal Article
U.S. coins: forecasting change
Our next article talks about change-as in coins. Every year, the government produces about 70 new coins for every man, woman, and child. But the economy's need for coins can vary from year to year. So how do the U.S. Mint, which makes the coins, and the Federal Reserve, which distributes them, decide how many coins the economy needs? In "U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change," Dean Croushore highlights some facts about coins and describes how demand for change is forecast.
Working Paper
Transactions costs and optimal inflation
Working Paper
Does data vintage matter for forecasting?
This paper illustrates the use of a real-time data set for forecasting. The data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of the major macroeconomic data available at quarterly intervals in real time. The paper explains the construction of the data set, examines the properties of several of the variables in the data set across vintages, and shows how forecasts can be affected by data revisions.
Journal Article
Consumer confidence surveys: can they help us forecast consumer spending in real time?
In ?Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?,? Dean Croushore uses the Philadelphia Fed?s real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time ? that is, real-time data ? make measures of consumer confidence more valuable for forecasting?
Working Paper
Forecasting coin demand.
Shortages of coins in 1999 and 2000 motivated the authors to develop models for forecasting coin demand. A variety of models were developed, tested, and used in realtime forecasting. This paper describes the models that were developed and examines the forecast errors from the models both in quasi-ex-ante forecasting exercises and in realtime use. Tests for forecast efficiency are run on each model. Real-time forecasts are examined. The authors conclude with suggestions for further refinements of the models.
Working Paper
A short-term model of the Fed's portfolio choice
What would happen if the Federal Reserve were to change the assets in its portfolio? Suppose that instead of using open-market operations in Treasury securities to increase the monetary base, the Fed were to engage in open-market operations in private securities or to use discount loans via a mechanism that allowed banks to borrow as much as they would like at a fixed discount rate. The analysis in this paper shows the impact on the economy in a static general-equilibrium model. This model follows Santomero (1983), adapted to evaluate a change in the Fed's portfolio and how that affects the ...
Journal Article
Inflation forecasts: how good are they?
Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However, they may have abandoned them too quickly. In this article, Dean Croushore takes a closer look at survey forecasts and, after considering some relevant factors, concludes that inflation forecasts may not be as bad as you think
Working Paper
Expectations and the effects of monetary policy
Working Paper
Ricardian equivalence with wage-rate uncertainty
Working Paper
Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post
The surge in fiscal deficits since 2008 has put a renewed focus on the authors? understanding of fiscal policy. The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. This paper gives new insight into past fiscal policy and its influence on monetary policy by examining the U.S. Federal Reserve Board staff?s Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy. The authors create a real-time database of the Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy, examine the forecast performance in terms of bias and effciency, and explore the implications for ...