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Journal Article
Amid Rising Input Costs, Many Tenth District Firms Report Passing Along Fewer Costs to Customers
According to surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, an increasing share of Tenth District firms have reported rising input costs in 2025. Although many manufacturing and services firms raised their selling prices in response, they have reported a reduced ability to fully pass through cost increases compared with 2022. Accordingly, consumer price increases could be more muted, at least temporarily, than in past periods of rising input prices.
Journal Article
The Outlook for Farmland Values amid Higher Interest Rates
In 2018, the spread between returns to farmland owners and benchmark interest rates narrowed to its lowest level in more than a decade in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. At the same time, farmland sales increased in some states for the first time in several years. Together, the reduced spread and indications of increased sales in some regions suggest the potential for lower farmland values moving forward.
Journal Article
Commodity Prices Have Limited Influence on U.S. Food Inflation
Food prices increased at the fastest pace in more than two decades from July 2021 to July 2022. We show that this increase has not been driven by commodity prices but by an increase in consumer spending on food at home and increases in costs along the supply chain. Our results suggest that food inflation could ease if consumers shift more purchases back to food service establishments and if costs in food processing and marketing abate. Conversely, food inflation could remain high if broader measures of inflation persist.
Journal Article
Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to High Food Inflation
Food inflation remains higher than measures of overall inflation, and labor markets have been tight. We find that processed food products have driven recent increases in grocery prices, and we argue that labor market tightness affects the prices of these labor-intensive products in particular through increases in production and distribution costs. Food inflation at grocery stores could remain elevated if price pressures on the supply side persist and demand for food at home remains strong.
Journal Article
Labor Constraints and Strong Demand Are Driving Robust Food Services Inflation
Although headline inflation has slowed in recent months, inflation for core services has remained elevated since the first half of 2021. Inflation for food services in particular has been significantly higher than inflation for goods and other services. We argue that food services inflation has been elevated by the sector’s fast rebound in expenditures and its high dependency on labor amid labor shortages and elevated labor costs.
Journal Article
Not Bullish: U.S. Cattle Herds Hung Up on Higher Interest Expenses
Cattle inventories declined to historically low levels at the start of 2024. Cattle producers may facechallenges maintaining or restocking herds, as higher interest expenses on cattle and input purchases in2022–23 have constrained profit margins. Although feed costs have decreased slightly, higher costs forfinancing and other operating expenses could continue to put pressure on cattle production andprofitability.
Journal Article
The Dispersion of Farmland Values in the Tenth District
Cortney Cowley examines the widening dispersion of farmland values in the Tenth Federal Reserve District and finds that land quality, climate, and commodity sales have played important roles.
Journal Article
Mapping Stress in Agricultural Lending
Repayment rates for farm loans have declined every quarter since the second quarter of 2013, suggesting heightened stress in agricultural lending. If repayment rates continue to decline?and the outlook for the agricultural sector remains downbeat?agricultural banks could become less able to lend to creditworthy farm borrowers. Thus, declining repayment rates could lead to adverse outcomes for agricultural banks, farmers, and the rural economies they serve. {{p}} Cortney Cowley uses data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City?s Ag Credit Survey to model and map areas with the highest ...
Journal Article
Reshuffling in Soybean Markets following Chinese Tariffs
Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans could reduce the global competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in the longer term.
Journal Article
Long-Term Pressures and Prospects for the U.S. Cattle Industry
Recent disruptions in the cattle sector have highlighted long-term pressures on cattle producers’ profitability.