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Working Paper
Estimating Border Effects: The Impact of Spatial Aggregation
Novy, Dennis; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2016-04-01)
Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which symmetric micro regions are aggregated into macro regions. We then apply the model to the large literature on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that aggregation leads to border effect heterogeneity. Larger regions or countries are systematically associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-6

Working Paper
Inter-temporal differences in the income elasticity of demand for lottery tickets
Garrett, Thomas A.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2007)
We estimate annual income elasticities of demand for lottery tickets using roughly twenty years of county-level data for three states. We find that the income elasticity of demand (and thus the tax burden) for lottery tickets has changed over time. We argue that these changes are due to changes in a state's lottery game portfolio and the growth in consumer income. Trends in the income elasticity of demand for instant and online lottery games appear to be different. Our results question the long-term growth potential of lottery revenue and have policy implications for state governments and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2007-042

Journal Article
Homer Jones' views on the Korean crisis
Coughlin, Cletus C. (1998-03)
Monetary Trends , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Foreign-owned companies in the U.S.: malign or benign?
Coughlin, Cletus C. (1992-05)
Review , Issue May , Pages 17-31

Working Paper
Foreign direct investment in China: a spatial econometric study
Coughlin, Cletus C.; Segev, Eran (1999)
Foreign direct investment (FDI) began to flow into China with advent of reforms in 1978. Following a period of relatively slow growth, FDI inflows to China picked up after 1990, as China surpassed every other nation but the United States in attracting foreign investment. In particular, coastal regions of China have received the bulk of FDI inflows to the country. In this paper, we use province-level data to explain the pattern of FDI location across China. We build upon previous research, introducing new potential determinants, using more recent FDI data, and incorporating spatial econometric ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-001

Journal Article
Accounting for changes in manufactured exports at the state level: 1976-86
Mandelbaum, Thomas B.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (1990-09)
Review , Issue Sep

Journal Article
How dangerous is the U.S. current account deficit?
Poole, William; Pakko, Michael R.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2006-04)
Although this deficit has been rising steadily since the early 1990s, a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy is unlikely. One reason is that only in the United States can so many foreigners invest so much money and get such good returns.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr , Pages 4-9

Working Paper
The Closing of a Major Airport: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects
Coughlin, Cletus C.; Ross, Stephen L.; Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Crews, Jonas C. (2021-01-19)
The closing of a busy airport has large effects on noise and economic activity. Using a unique dataset, we examine the effects of closing Denver’s Stapleton Airport on nearby housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory price effects upon announcement, but no price changes at closing and little evidence of upward trending prices between announcement and closing. However, after airport closure, more higher income and fewer black households moved into these locations, and developers built higher quality houses. Finally, post-closing, these demographic and housing stock changes ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-001

Working Paper
National and Regional Housing Vacancy: Insights Using Markov-switching Models
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Crews, Jonas C.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2018-05-11)
We examine homeowner vacancy rates over time and space using Markov-switching models. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating regime-switching behavior and interregional spillovers. Our approach is strongly supported by our empirical results. Estimations, using constant-only as well as Vector Autoregressions, allow us to examine differences in vacancy rates as well as explore the possibility of asymmetries within and across housing markets, depending on the state/regime (e.g., low or high vacancy) of a given housing market. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-7

Working Paper
House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Soques, Daniel; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2020-08-17)
This paper examines house price comovement across U.S. metropolitan areas (MSAs). We develop a Markov-switching framework that includes a spatial similarity element based on distances between MSAs. Our approach allows for house price comovements that occur due to similar timing of downturns across groups or clusters of MSAs. The inclusion of the spatial element improves the model fit compared to a standard endogenous clustering model. We find seven clusters of MSAs, where each cluster experiences idiosyncratic house price downturns, plus one distinct national house price cycle. Notably, only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-028

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