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Author:Contessi, Silvio 

Journal Article
Get by with a little help from my…other exports

The European debt crisis could certainly affect the U.S. economy through other channels?but its direct impact on U.S. exports is likely to be small.>
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows

We describe the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship (covariance and correlation) to business cycle variables of 22 emerging and OECD countries. Disaggregated flows have different volatility properties, with debt being the most volatile and FDI the least volatile. We show that (a) inward flows are procyclical, outward and net outward flows are countercyclical for most industrial and emerging countries while, for the G-7, both inward and outward flows are procyclical and net outflows are countercyclical; (b) inward FDI flows are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-041

Working Paper
The (non-)resiliency of foreign direct investment in the United States during the 2007-2009 financial crisis

We study the contraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in the United States during the recent financial crisis and show their unusual non-resiliency, which depends in part on the global nature of the economic recession, but also on the increases in the cost of financing FDI in the economies in which the flows originate. To formally study the effects of external financial conditions on FDI in the United States, we exploit the three dimensions of a panel of U.S. inward FDI flows organized by recipient U.S. industries, source countries, and years for the recorded flows. Changes in the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2011-037

Working Paper
Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of seven U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and January 2015. We find statistically significant evidence of such behavior in six of these spreads. Mild explosivity migrates from short-term funding markets to more volatile medium- and long-term markets during the Great Financial Crisis. For some markets, we statistically validate the conjecture, originally suggested by Gorton (2009a,b), that ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 324

Journal Article
Current risks from exports and foreign sales

Consistent with national data, foreign sales of affiliates of U.S. multinational firms headquartered in the Eight Federal Reserve District are larger for Europe and the Asia Pacific region?not Mexico and Canada, the major U.S. trading partners.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Net exports' recent (and surprising?) contribution to GDP growth

International Economic Trends , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Commercial bank lending data during the crisis: handle with care

Caution is necessary when making inferences based solely on aggregate loans data.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
The role of financing in international trade during good times and bad

The collapse of trade during the financial crisis can be tied, for the most part, to a drop in demand. Less talked about, however, is the role of financing?or lack thereof.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

Working Paper
International trade, female labor, and entrepreneurship in MENA countries

Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries stand out in international comparisons of de jure obstacles to female employment and entrepreneurship. These obstacles are mirrored in low female labor rate participation and low entrepreneurship and ownership rates. Recent research suggests a connection between international trade and female labor participation. In this article, the authors focus on the relationship between international trade and gender in the MENA countries first analyzing female labor as a production factor, and then focusing on female entrepreneurship and firm ownership. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-053

Journal Article
Are bank reserves and bank lending connected?

As long as the strength of the recovery remains uncertain, there are few other investment opportunities, after adjusting for risk and taxes, with anticipated returns greater than the near-zero interest the Federal Reserve pays on deposits.
Economic Synopses

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