Search Results
Journal Article
Get by with a little help from my…other exports
The European debt crisis could certainly affect the U.S. economy through other channels?but its direct impact on U.S. exports is likely to be small.>
Working Paper
Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets
We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of seven U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and January 2015. We find statistically significant evidence of such behavior in six of these spreads. Mild explosivity migrates from short-term funding markets to more volatile medium- and long-term markets during the Great Financial Crisis. For some markets, we statistically validate the conjecture, originally suggested by Gorton (2009a,b), that ...
Journal Article
Current risks from exports and foreign sales
Consistent with national data, foreign sales of affiliates of U.S. multinational firms headquartered in the Eight Federal Reserve District are larger for Europe and the Asia Pacific region?not Mexico and Canada, the major U.S. trading partners.
Journal Article
Net exports' recent (and surprising?) contribution to GDP growth
Journal Article
Commercial bank lending data during the crisis: handle with care
Caution is necessary when making inferences based solely on aggregate loans data.
Journal Article
The role of financing in international trade during good times and bad
The collapse of trade during the financial crisis can be tied, for the most part, to a drop in demand. Less talked about, however, is the role of financing?or lack thereof.
Journal Article
Are bank reserves and bank lending connected?
As long as the strength of the recovery remains uncertain, there are few other investment opportunities, after adjusting for risk and taxes, with anticipated returns greater than the near-zero interest the Federal Reserve pays on deposits.
Journal Article
Multinationals from emerging economies: growing but little understood
Their share of the foreign investment pie grew from 0.4 percent in 1970 to 15.8 percent in 2008. What's behind the growth?
Journal Article
Three faces of low inflation: U.S., Japan and the Euro area
Journal Article
Forward guidance 101B: a roadmap of the international experience
The Federal Reserve is just one of several central banks that have adopted forward guidance since the beginning of the financial crisis and in an environment of near-zero policy rates (zero lower bound).