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Journal Article
Forward guidance 101B: a roadmap of the international experience
The Federal Reserve is just one of several central banks that have adopted forward guidance since the beginning of the financial crisis and in an environment of near-zero policy rates (zero lower bound).
Journal Article
An international perspective on the recent behavior of inflation
Several commentators have been concerned about the possibility that the euro area may be experiencing disinflation with the risk of deflation. However, the euro area is not the only economy navigating the risky waters of low inflation. Several other advanced economies have recently experienced below-target inflation as well as some actual deflation. In this article, the authors collect data for nine advanced economies and document several facts about the behavior of inflation during the 2002-14 period. First, they show that the relationship between inflation rates and short-term rates ...
Journal Article
The evolving size distribution of banks
If limiting the size of large banks were considered appropriate to reduce systemic risk, it would be a clear change of direction relative to the long-term evolution of the industry.
Journal Article
An application of conventional sovereign debt sustainability analysis to the current debt crises
The developing international debt crisis has unleashed unanticipated fears that governments in some advanced economies may default on their sovereign debt and trigger a global financial tsunami. This article provides a primer on sovereign debt sustainability and interprets the recent experience of advanced economies in the light of a uniform approach that allows an answer to this question: What are the main factors that contribute to make a country?s debt sustainable or unsustainable?
Working Paper
Multinational Firms' Entry and Productivity: Some Aggregate Implications of Firm-level Heterogeneity
Despite the microeconomic evidence supporting the superior idiosyncratic productivity of multinational firms (MFN) and their affiliates, cross-country studies fail to find robust evidence of a positive relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and growth. In order to study the aggregate implications of MNF entry and production, I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity where MNF sort according to their own productivity. Entry and production of MNF contribute to aggregate productivity growth at decreasing rates over time but potentially crowd out ...
Journal Article
From \\"man-cession\\" to \\"he-covery\\": same old, same old
The male labor force was hit harder during the recent recession because more jobs were lost in occupations and sectors that traditionally employ more men.
Journal Article
Bank vs. bond financing over the business cycle
While bank lending contracts during the typical recession, liquidity in bond markets may not.
Journal Article
Forward guidance 101A: a roadmap of the U.S. experience
Forward guidance consists of communicating to the public the stance of monetary policy that is expected to prevail in the future.
Working Paper
The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows
We describe the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship (covariance and correlation) to business cycle variables of 22 emerging and OECD countries. Disaggregated flows have different volatility properties, with debt being the most volatile and FDI the least volatile. We show that (a) inward flows are procyclical, outward and net outward flows are countercyclical for most industrial and emerging countries while, for the G-7, both inward and outward flows are procyclical and net outflows are countercyclical; (b) inward FDI flows are ...