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Journal Article
Get by with a little help from my…other exports
The European debt crisis could certainly affect the U.S. economy through other channels?but its direct impact on U.S. exports is likely to be small.>
Working Paper
The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows
We describe the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship (covariance and correlation) to business cycle variables of 22 emerging and OECD countries. Disaggregated flows have different volatility properties, with debt being the most volatile and FDI the least volatile. We show that (a) inward flows are procyclical, outward and net outward flows are countercyclical for most industrial and emerging countries while, for the G-7, both inward and outward flows are procyclical and net outflows are countercyclical; (b) inward FDI flows are ...
Working Paper
The (non-)resiliency of foreign direct investment in the United States during the 2007-2009 financial crisis
We study the contraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in the United States during the recent financial crisis and show their unusual non-resiliency, which depends in part on the global nature of the economic recession, but also on the increases in the cost of financing FDI in the economies in which the flows originate. To formally study the effects of external financial conditions on FDI in the United States, we exploit the three dimensions of a panel of U.S. inward FDI flows organized by recipient U.S. industries, source countries, and years for the recorded flows. Changes in the ...
Working Paper
Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets
We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of seven U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and January 2015. We find statistically significant evidence of such behavior in six of these spreads. Mild explosivity migrates from short-term funding markets to more volatile medium- and long-term markets during the Great Financial Crisis. For some markets, we statistically validate the conjecture, originally suggested by Gorton (2009a,b), that ...
Journal Article
Current risks from exports and foreign sales
Consistent with national data, foreign sales of affiliates of U.S. multinational firms headquartered in the Eight Federal Reserve District are larger for Europe and the Asia Pacific region?not Mexico and Canada, the major U.S. trading partners.
Journal Article
Net exports' recent (and surprising?) contribution to GDP growth
Journal Article
Commercial bank lending data during the crisis: handle with care
Caution is necessary when making inferences based solely on aggregate loans data.
Journal Article
The role of financing in international trade during good times and bad
The collapse of trade during the financial crisis can be tied, for the most part, to a drop in demand. Less talked about, however, is the role of financing?or lack thereof.
Working Paper
International trade, female labor, and entrepreneurship in MENA countries
Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries stand out in international comparisons of de jure obstacles to female employment and entrepreneurship. These obstacles are mirrored in low female labor rate participation and low entrepreneurship and ownership rates. Recent research suggests a connection between international trade and female labor participation. In this article, the authors focus on the relationship between international trade and gender in the MENA countries first analyzing female labor as a production factor, and then focusing on female entrepreneurship and firm ownership. ...
Journal Article
Are bank reserves and bank lending connected?
As long as the strength of the recovery remains uncertain, there are few other investment opportunities, after adjusting for risk and taxes, with anticipated returns greater than the near-zero interest the Federal Reserve pays on deposits.