Discussion Paper
Mixed Impacts of the Federal Tax Reform on Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Conlon, John; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2018-05-23)
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 changed the tax brackets, tax rates, credits and deductions for individuals and similarly altered corporate tax rates, deductions and exclusions. In this post, we examine whether the reform has shifted individuals’ expectations about their financial situation and the macroeconomic outlook. We also ask whether households have already started to adjust their behavior in line with their expectations. In order to answer these questions, we use novel data from a special module of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) fielded in February 2018 ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180523

Discussion Paper
Political Polarization in Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Conlon, John; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-12-15)
Following the 2016 presidential election, as noted on this blog and many other outlets, Americans’ political and economic outlook changed dramatically depending on partisan affiliation. Immediately after the election, Republicans became substantially more optimistic relative to Democrats. In this blog post, we revisit the issue of polarization over the past twelve months using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)—also the focus of a detailed technical overview in the latest edition of the Bank’s journal, the Economic Policy Review. The overview walks ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171215