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Working Paper
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
Are Continued Jobless Claims a Useful Gauge of Labor Market Conditions?
Economists have used initial claims for jobless benefits to gauge U.S. labor market conditions. Can continued claims also be used as a predictor of employment growth?
A Historical and Geographical Look at Federal Employment Levels
After a decline in the 1990s, the number of federal workers was relatively stable before rising in recent years. However, the levels have changed substantially in many states where they work.