Journal Article
The unreliability of inflation indicators
Steindel, Charles; Chu, Rita S.; Cecchetti, Stephen G. (2000-04)
Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 6 , Issue Apr