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Working Paper
Money and activity in the U.K. 1961-1983: surprise? surprise!
This is a study of the impact of money growth and money growth surprises on U.K. real activity (GDP and unemployment). We find no support for the 'only surprises have real effects' story except in the 1960s when the fixed exchange rate regime makes exogeneity of money questionable. Some support is found for the older monetarist view that lagged actual money growth has real effects. Our most surprising result is that U.S. M1 growth outperforms both U.K. M1 and sterling M3 as a determinant of U.K. real activity in the floating exchange rate period.
Journal Article
Are trade deficits a problem?
Journal Article
International banking facilities
Working Paper
Tests of price sluggishness in the U.K.
Journal Article
The macroeconomic effects of deficit spending: a review
Journal Article
A guide to foreign exchange markets
Journal Article
How the 1992 legislation will affect European financial services
Working Paper
Money and sectoral output dynamics in the United States, quarterly 1950/III to 1982/IV
The impact of money growth and money growth surprises is investigated in a framework in which GNP is disaggregated into its major sectoral components. The evidence presented is not fully consistent with a new classical interpretation of the business cycle. In particular light is thrown on the issue of the lag effect of money surprises. It is discovered that, even when sectoral interactions are accounted for, there are effects of lagged money growth. These lags are inconsistent with an equilibrium/rational expectations approach to business cycles. It is also discovered that growth in an ...