Search Results
Journal Article
The Rising Federal Funds Rate in the Current Low Long-Term Interest Rate Environment
The low long-term yield is likely a result of high foreign demand for Treasuries rather than a near-zero federal funds rate.
Working Paper
The Determination of Public Debt under both Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Uncertainty
We use an analytically tractable model to show that the Ramsey planner's decisions to finance stochastic public expenditures under uninsurable idiosyncratic risk implies a departure from tax smoothing. In the absence of state-contingent bonds the government's attempt to balance the competing incentives between tax smoothing and individual consumption smoothing---even at the cost of extra tax distortion---implies a bounded stochastic unit root component in optimal taxes. Nonetheless, a sufficiently high average level of public debt to support individuals’ self-insurance position is welfare ...
Working Paper
The Ramsey Steady-State Conundrum in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies
In infinite horizon, heterogeneous-agent and incomplete-market models, the existence of an interior Ramsey steady state is often assumed instead of proven. This paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) We prove that the interior Ramsey steady state assumed by Aiyagari (1995) does not exist in the standard Aiyagari model. Specifically, a steady state featuring the modified golden rule and a positive capital tax is feasible but not optimal. (ii) We design a modified, analytically tractable version of the standard Aiyagari model to unveil the necessary and/or sufficient conditions for the ...
What Lessons Can Be Drawn from Japan’s High Debt-to-GDP Ratio?
Taking into account other public liabilities and assets can provide a clearer picture when comparing Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio with that of the U.S.
Working Paper
Are Unconditional Lump-sum Transfers a Good Idea?
The role of unconditional lump-sum transfers in improving social welfare in heterogenous agent models has not been thoroughly understood in the literature. We adopt an analytically tractable Aiyagari-type model to study the distinctive role of unconditional lump-sum transfers in reducing consumption inequality due to ex-post uninsurable income risk. Our results show that in the presence of ex-post heterogeneity and in the absence of wealth inequality, unconditional lump-sum transfers are not a desirable tool for reducing consumption inequality—the Ramsey planner opts to rely solely on ...
Working Paper
The Determination of Public Debt under both Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Uncertainty
We use an analytically tractable model to show that the Ramsey planner's decisions to finance stochastic public expenditures under uninsurable idiosyncratic risk implies a departure from tax smoothing. In the absence of state-contingent bonds the government's attempt to balance the competing incentives between tax smoothing and individual consumption smoothing---even at the cost of extra tax distortion---implies a bounded stochastic unit root component in optimal taxes. Nonetheless, a sufficiently high average level of public debt to support individuals’ self-insurance position is welfare ...
Working Paper
The Ramsey Steady-State Conundrum in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies
This paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) We prove that the interior Ramsey steady state commonly assumed in the literature may not exist in a standard Aiyagari model-in particular, a steady state with the modified golden rule and a positive capital tax is shown to be feasible but not optimal. (ii) We design a modified, analytically tractable version of the standard Aiyagari model to reveal the necessary and/or sufficient conditions for the existence of a Ramsey steady state. We characterize the basic properties of both interior and non-interior Ramsey steady states and show that ...
Japan’s Consolidated Balance Sheet and Challenges for Monetary Policy
An analysis breaks down Japan’s consolidated balance sheet and considerations surrounding fiscal and monetary policies.
Why the Same Inflation Target May Not Fit All Countries
The central banks of many advanced economies have adopted an inflation target at around 2%. But should they use the same target?