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Journal Article
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Rising Inflation
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2016)
Rising inflation rates will have larger effects on some groups than others.
Economic Synopses , Issue 21 , Pages 1-2

Working Paper
What about Japan?
Lustig, Hanno; Cole, Harold L.; Chien, YiLi (2023-11-06)
As a result of the BoJ's large-scale asset purchases, the consolidated Japanese government borrows mostly at the floating rate from households and invests in longer-duration risky assets to earn an extra 3% of GDP. We quantify the impact of Japan's low-rate policies on its government and households. Because of the duration mismatch on the government balance sheet, the government's fiscal space expands when real rates decline, allowing the government to keep its promises to older Japanese households. A typical younger Japanese household does not have enough duration in its portfolio to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-028

Working Paper
The Determination of Public Debt under both Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Uncertainty
Wen, Yi; Chien, YiLi (2021-12-29)
We use an analytically tractable, heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model to show that the Ramsey planner’s decision to finance stochastic public expenditures implies a departure from tax smoothing and an endogeneous mean-reverting force to support positive debt growth despite the government’s precautionary saving motives. Specifically, the government’s attempt to balance the competing incentives between its own precautionary saving (tax smoothing) and households’ precautionary saving (individual consumption smoothing)—even at the cost of extra tax distortion—implies an ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-038

Working Paper
Time-Inconsistent Optimal Quantity of Debt
Wen, Yi; Chien, YiLi (2020-10-29)
A key feature of the infinite-horizon heterogeneous-agents incomplete-markets (Inf-HAIM) framework is that the equilibrium interest rate of public debt lies below the time discount rate (regardless of capital). This happens because of a positive liquidity premium on asset returns due to imperfect risk sharing. This fundamental property of standard Inf-HAIM models, however, implies that the Ramsey planner's fiscal policy may be time-inconsistent---because the planner has a dominate incentive to issue plenty of debt such that all households are fully self-insured against idiosyncratic risk ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-037

More Households Face Food Scarcity during COVID-19
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-06-18)
More U.S. households are reporting that they sometimes or often do not have enough food, according to a new Census survey.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Recent Rise of U.S. National Wealth
Chien, YiLi; Stewart, Ashley (2022-10-19)
The latest large surge in the U.S. wealth-to-GDP ratio has dwarfed the peaks seen in the past.
Economic Synopses , Issue 28 , Pages 1-2

How Financially Fit Are American Retirees?
Chien, YiLi; Sun, Qiuhan (2020-10-06)
From 1989 to 2016, the wealth of retired households increased in real terms. But data also indicated that wealth inequality worsened among retirees.
On the Economy

Journal Article
How Long Will the Relief Check Last?
Chien, YiLi (2020-04-06)
The money from relief checks will likely not last very long, even for low-income households.
Economic Synopses , Issue 13

Journal Article
Stability and Equilibrium Selection in Learning Models: A Note of Caution
Chien, YiLi; Cho, In-Koo; Ravikumar, B. (2021-10-18)
Relative to rational expectations models, learning models provide a theory of expectation formation where agents use observed data and a learning rule. Given the possibility of multiple equilibria under rational expectations, the learning literature often uses stability as a criterion to select an equilibrium. This article uses a monetary economy to illustrate that equilibrium selection based on stability is sensitive to specifications of the learning rule. The stability criterion selects qualitatively different equilibria even when the differences in learning specifications are small.
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 477-488

Journal Article
Does a Stronger Dollar Erode the Profitability of U.S. Firms?
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2016)
U.S. firms have adjusted well in response to the recent appreciation of the dollar.
Economic Synopses , Issue 27 , Pages 1-2

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