Discussion Paper
Measuring Unemployment Risk
Chapuis, Brendan J.; Coglianese, John (2024-03-08)
In this note, we introduce a measure of unemployment risk, the likelihood of a worker becoming unemployed within the next twelve months. By using nonparametric machine learning applied to data on millions of workers in the US, we can estimate how unemployment risk varies across individuals and over time.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-03-08-1

Discussion Paper
The Persistent Urban Shortfall in Leisure and Hospitality Employment
Murray, Seth; Chapuis, Brendan J.; Price, Brendan M. (2023-07-28)
As a high-contact service sector with limited capacity for remote work, the US leisure and hospitality sector—which includes restaurants, bars, hotels, museums, and movie theaters—was hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first two months of the pandemic, leisure and hospitality lost over 8 million jobs, nearly half its employment (Figure 1, solid red line).
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-07-28-1