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Discussion Paper
The Branch Puzzle : Why Are there Still Bank Branches?
Grundl, Serafin J.; Anenberg, Elliot; Moore, Kevin B.; Windle, Richard; Chang, Andrew C. (2018-08-20)
We provide evidence that the persistence of the large number of local bank branches across the country may be due to the fact that both depositors and small businesses continue to value local bank branches.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2018-08-20

Journal Article
Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2016 to 2019: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Moore, Kevin B.; Reber, Sarah; Bhutta, Neil; Hsu, Joanne W.; Volz, Alice Henriques; Bricker, Jesse; Windle, Richard; Goodman, Sarena; Dettling, Lisa J.; Chang, Andrew C. (2020-09)
The Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2019 provides insights into the evolution of family income and net worth since the previous time the survey was conducted in 2016. The survey shows that over the 2016–19 period, the median value of real (inflation-adjusted) family income before taxes rose 5 percent, and mean income decreased 3 percent. Real median net worth increased 18 percent, and mean net worth rose 2 percent. This survey marks the first in the aftermath of the Great Recession in which between-survey changes in the median outpaced changes in the mean for ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 106 , Issue 5 , Pages 42

Working Paper
Banking Consolidation and Small Firm Financing for Research and Development
Chang, Andrew C. (2016-04-08)
This paper examines the effect of increased market concentration of the banking industry caused by the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (IBBEA) on the availability of finance for small firms engaged in research and development (R&D). I measure the financing decisions of these small firms using a balanced panel of Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) applications. Using difference-in-differences, I find IBBEA decreased the supply of finance for small R&D firms. This effect is larger for late adopters of IBBEA, which tended to be states with stronger small ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-029

Working Paper
Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income
Li, Phillip; Chang, Andrew C. (2015-11-10)
We analyze the effect of measurement error in macroeconomic data on economics research using two features of the estimates of latent US output produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). First, we use the fact that the BEA publishes two theoretically identical estimates of latent US output that only differ due to measurement error: the more well-known gross domestic product (GDP), which the BEA constructs using expenditure data, and gross domestic income (GDI), which the BEA constructs using income data. Second, we use BEA revisions to previously published releases of GDP and GDI. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-102

Working Paper
Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting
Chang, Andrew C.; Levinson, Trace J. (2020-10-23)
We introduce a new dataset of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecasts produced by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In contrast to the eight Greenbook forecasts a year the staff produces for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, our dataset has roughly weekly forecasts. We use these new data to study whether the staff forecasts efficiently and whether efficiency, or lack thereof, is time-varying. Prespecified regressions of forecast errors on forecast revisions show that the staff's ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-090

Working Paper
Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
Ma, Eva; Hsu, Joanne W.; Sjoblom, Micah; Chang, Andrew C.; Bachtell, Kate (2024-04-19)
To encourage survey participation and improve sample representativeness, the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) offers an unconditional pre-paid monetary incentive and separate post-paid incentive upon survey completion. We conducted a pre-registered between-subject randomized control experiment within the 2022 SCF, with at least 1,200 households per experimental group, to examine whether changing the pre-paid incentive structure affects survey outcomes. We assess the effects of: (1) altering the total dollar value of the pre-paid incentive (“incentive effect”), (2) giving two identical ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-023

Working Paper
Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"
Li, Phillip; Chang, Andrew C. (2015-09-04)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-83

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