Search Results
Working Paper
Monitoring core inflation
An analysis of the use of limited-information estimators as measures of core inflation, showing that these estimators, such as the median of the cross-sectional distribution of inflation, have a higher correlation with past money growth and deliver improved forecasts of future inflation relative to the Consumer Price Index.
Journal Article
Practical issues in monetary policy targeting
An outline of the considerable information requirements faced by monetary policymakers, and an examination of the data to see what we actually know and how well we know it. The author's primary conclusion is that the deficiencies of our forecasting ability create uncertainty that leads to cautious policymaking.
Journal Article
Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers
Conference Paper
Achieving growth amid fiscal imbalances: the real effects of debt
Journal Article
The consumer price index as a measure of inflation
An estimation of a price index that is immune to some of the weighting biases that can hinder the use of the Consumer Price Index as a reliable measure of inflation.
Journal Article
The unreliability of inflation indicators
Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
Journal Article
High real interest rates: can they be explained?
Working Paper
Efficient inflation estimation
An investigation of the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of inflation.