Search Results
Working Paper
Monitoring core inflation
An analysis of the use of limited-information estimators as measures of core inflation, showing that these estimators, such as the median of the cross-sectional distribution of inflation, have a higher correlation with past money growth and deliver improved forecasts of future inflation relative to the Consumer Price Index.
Journal Article
The seasonality of consumer prices
A reevaluation of the evidence of seasonality in prices, finding that seasonal price movements have become more prominent in the relatively stable inflation environment that has prevailed since 1982, and that the amount of seasonality differs greatly by item, making it difficult to generalize about seasonal price movements.
Working Paper
Interactions between the seasonal and business cycles in production and inventories
This paper shows that in several U.S. manufacturing industries, the seasonal variability of production and inventories varies with the state of the business cycle. We present a simple model which implies that if firms reduce the seasonal variability of their production as the economy strengthens, and they either hold constant or increase the stock of inventories they bring into the high-production seasons of the year, then they must face upward-sloping and convex marginal production cost curves. We conclude that firms in a number of industries face upward-sloping and convex ...
Conference Paper
Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism.
Journal Article
The future of financial intermediation and regulation: an overview
On March 11, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Executive Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivered the following remarks at the symposium A New Equilibrium in the Credit Business: The Future of Financial Systems--Regulation in the Twenty-First Century, sponsored by the Oliver Wyman Institute and the Institut fur Kreditwesen, Universitat Munster.
Conference Paper
Financial crises and economic activity
Journal Article
Mortgage interest deductibility and housing prices
An analysis of how implementing a flat tax on income and ending the deductibility of mortgage interest payments would affect housing prices. The authors show that, to the extent prices decline, higher-income households would bear most of the impact, but increases in the value of their other assets might mitigate the drop in the price of their homes.