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Author:Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo 

Discussion Paper
Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations

Since the start of the pandemic, views about the evolution of aggregate consumer prices moved swiftly from concerns about deflation to fears about excessive inflation. It is hard to find a parallel in the history of the U.S. economy—or the global economy more generally—to this rapid reversal of risks to the inflation outlook.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2022-03-31

Working Paper
What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China

Spillovers from China to global financial markets have been found to be small owing to China's limited integration in the global financial system. In this paper, however, we provide evidence that China constitutes an important driver of the global financial cycle. We argue that because of China's importance for global consumption, stronger Chinese growth raises global growth prospects, inducing an increase in global risk sentiment and an expansion in global asset prices and global credit. Two contributions are key to this finding: (1) We construct a measure of China's credit impulse to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1360

Discussion Paper
Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook

With the reopening of economies from strict COVID-19 lockdowns and the war-induced sharp increases in food, energy, and other commodity prices, headline inflation has surged globally, as shown for a few selected advanced economies by the black line in the left panel of figure 1. Core inflation (the dashed red line) has also risen sharply and has become increasingly persistent across these economies.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-01-13

Discussion Paper
Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World

The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in inflation around the world, reflecting rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices exacerbated by the Russian war on Ukraine. As illustrated in figure 1, this inflation surge was synchronized across advanced and emerging economies, not only for total inflation but also for its core component.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-06-28

Discussion Paper
The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty

Uncertainty about inflation has risen considerably across the globe since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lack of clarity about how far inflation might fall during the depths of the pandemic gave way to concerns about inflationary pressures as demand surged and supply was constrained throughout 2021.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-01-03

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