Search Results
Journal Article
Bank runs, deposit insurance, and bank regulation, part II
An examination of contagious bank runs and a discussion of how private clearinghouses have protected against widespread bank failures, with the determination that federal deposit insurance may not be necessary to protect against runs; conclusion of February 1 issue.
Journal Article
Enterprise liability: a prescription for health care reform?
A look at how the cost and quality of medical services in the United States would be affected by enterprise liability, a malpractice reform proposal that would 1) transfer liability in malpractice cases from the doctor to the patient's health care plan and 2) institute no-fault malpractice insurance.
Journal Article
Central bank independence: the key to price stability?
Low inflation over long periods is the sign of an effective central bank. The authors suggest that a large fraction of the worldwide decline in inflation since the early 1980s results from an international movement toward more independent central banks.
Journal Article
Money growth and inflation: does fiscal policy matter?
Is inflation (in the often-quoted words of Milton Friedman) "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"? Some say no, arguing that inflation is controlled not only by the central bank but also by the fiscal authority. This Commentary authors explore their argument, known as the fiscal theory of the price level.
Journal Article
A monetary policy paradox
An exploration of the paradoxical link between interest rates and inflation in the short versus the long run, showing that it may be more difficult for a central bank to achieve credibility--and hence a less costly transition to a stable price environment--without first making the monetary authorities accountable for publicly stated multiyear objectives for the price level.
Journal Article
The effect of war expenditures on U.S. output
A study of how war-related temporary increases in government expenditures affect real interest rates and output, with particular emphasis on the probable fiscal effects of the Persian Gulf War.
Journal Article
Bank runs, deposit insurance, and bank regulation, part I
An analysis of the costs and benefits of providing federal deposit insurance as a means of preventing widespread bank failures, and the role of bank regulators in assuring bank solvency; article concludes with February 15 issue.
Journal Article
Government-subsidized training: a plan for prosperity?
Many analysts believe that the United States should subsidize training to increase its workers' skills because employers don't provide enough. This Commentary asks whether the present level of training is truly insufficient, or whether firms' incentives may already be in synch with the social costs and benefits of training.
Journal Article
Using an Improved Taylor Rule to Predict When Policy Changes Will Occur
A standard Taylor rule, which expresses the federal funds rate as a function of inflation, the unemployment gap, and the past federal funds rate, tracks the federal funds rate well over time. We improve the fit by adding employment growth. Then we evaluate the effectiveness of that rule in a new way?by how accurately it predicts whether the FOMC moves the fed funds rate at its next meeting. It does pretty well, predicting nearly 70 percent of the time correctly.
Journal Article
Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?
Forecasters? projections of interest rates vary a great deal. We use a Taylor rule to investigate two possible reasons why. Namely, do differences arise because forecasters have different projections for output growth or inflation, or do they arise because forecasters follow different guidelines to predict what the Federal Reserve will do with the federal funds rate? We find evidence for both explanations. Forecasters appear to use very different projections for inflation and output growth, but they also seem to use dramatically different Taylor rule coefficients.