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Working Paper
Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates
There is strong evidence of a stable ?money demand? relationship for MZM and M2 through the 1990s. Though the M2 relationship breaks down somewhere around 1990, evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in M2 velocity that began around 1990 and was largely over by 1994. This paper?s results support the hypothesis that households permanently reallocated a portion of their wealth from time deposits to mutual funds. This reallocation may have been induced by depository restructuring, but it could also be explained by appropriately ...
Journal Article
Assessing real interest rates
An assessment of the usefulness of a real-interest-rate guidepost for communicating long-term monetary policy intentions to the public. The author contends that because of inherent complexities in the relationship between real interest rates and policy objectives, a policy framework expressed in terms of ultimate objectives would be more informative, particularly if it included a nominal anchor on the price level.
Journal Article
Recent behavior of velocity: alternative measures of money
An examination of the relationship between velocity and interest rates for two alternative measures of money, and an analysis of the effects of thrift restructuring on money demand.
Journal Article
Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer
An analysis of how federal funds futures markets are efficient processors of information concerning the future path of the fed funds rate and a discussion of some related implications for central-bank policymaking.
Journal Article
Does dollar depreciation matter: the case of auto imports from Japan
The Japanese auto industry is used as a case in point to illustrate some of the ways in which firms operating in export markets cope with exchange-rate changes.
Journal Article
Measures of corporate earnings: what number is best?
Revelations of corporate fraud in 2002 shook the public's confidence in financial reporting and led to calls for reform. Without credible, transparent, and comparable financial information, investors, auditors, and others cannot make decisions that are essential to the efficient functioning of the economy. But while rules can be improved, it is not possible to achieve a rigid standard that applies uniformly to every company. This Economic Commentary explains why.
Journal Article
Understanding the recent behavior of M2
A discussion of the unanticipated weakness in the M2 monetary aggregate in recent years, suggesting that the shortfall may be largely attributable to the restructuring of the thrift industry, and an explanation of why economic models predicting M2 growth have had difficulty tracking this weakness.
Journal Article
Monetary policy and inflation: 1993 in perspective
An overview of monetary policy developments in 1993, discussed in the context of the longer-term objective of price stability.
Journal Article
The demand for M2, opportunity cost, and financial change
An analysis of the recent weakness in M2 growth that attempts to measure the opportunity cost of the aggregate more accurately and that explores the potential effects of the thrift industry restructuring on the adjustment of money demand to its long-run equilibrium level.
Journal Article
The national debt: a secular perspective
An examination of the various factors that have determined the level and growth of the federal debt over the past 40 years, with some perspective on future levels of federal debt.