Journal Article
The debt burden: what you don't see
Carlson, John B. (1985-05)
An examination of the federal deficit and a discussion of how an increasing debt burden could cause a serious threat to long-term U.S. economic growth.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
W(h)ither the Fed’s balance sheet?
Haubrich, Joseph G.; Lindner, John; Carlson, John B. (2010-07-28)
Federal Reserve policymakers have expressed their support for ultimately shrinking the Fed?s balance sheet and returning the composition of its portfolio to only Treasury securities. Policymakers also favor returning to a fed-funds-rate-targeting procedure or something quite similar. While Fed holdings of some asset classes have been diminishing naturally, the orderly reduction of others could involve special tools that the Fed has been putting in place for a while. An ongoing issue will be to determine an optimal sequence of appropriate actions.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2010 , Issue 08

Journal Article
Accelerating money growth: is M2 telling us something?
Carlson, John B. (1997-11)
A look at the recent acceleration in M2, examining evidence that its velocity has stabilized around a new trend, analyzing the usefulness of money in monetary policy deliberations, and highlighting some of the pitfalls of ignoring money growth.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Debt growth and the financial system
Carlson, John B. (1986-10)
An examination of the extraordinary growth of domestic nonfinancial debt since 1982 and a discussion of policy issues raised by its relation to the stability of the financial system.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
The recent ascent in stock prices: how exuberant are you?
Carlson, John B. (1999-08)
Soaring stock prices continue to pit those who claim that investors are paying too much against those who believe stocks are worth even more. Prices of stocks are determined by people's perceptions of worth, which are themselves based on expectations for the future Although we cannot be sure whether the market is over- or undervalued, we can clarify the factors that determine stock prices and discover the assumptions underlying our expectations. Assessing the consistency of these assumptions may help keep our exuberance in check.
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug

Journal Article
M2 growth in 1995: a return to normalcy?
Keen, Benjamin D.; Carlson, John B. (1995-12)
A discussion of M2's demise as a reliable indicator of financial conditions in the economy, and a look at recent evidence suggesting that even though the aggregate has been behaving more normally over the past year or so, it is unlikely to regain its status as a key policy guide any time soon.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Investor expectations and fundamentals: disappointment ahead?
Carlson, John B.; Pelz, Eduard A. (2000-05)
The average annual return of the S&P 500 since 1994 has exceeded 25 percent. Confidence is high and investors are looking forward to continued above-average returns. The authors of this Economic Commentary attempt to reconcile investors' expectations with a decline in the equity premium, using a standard approach to stock-price valuation.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
Monetary policy and inflation: 1993 in perspective
Bauer, Gregory A.; Carlson, John B. (1994-01)
An overview of monetary policy developments in 1993, discussed in the context of the longer-term objective of price stability.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Why is the dividend yield so low?
Carlson, John B. (2001-04)
The dividend yield on stocks has dropped sharply over the last decade. Is its drop a consequence of irrational exuberance? This Commentary assesses alternative explanations for the diminished dividend yield.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Assessing progress toward price stability: looking forward and looking backward
Carlson, John B. (1994-05)
An examination of how to assess the inflationary effects of current monetary policy, reviewing the behavior of a selected measure of core inflation over the past decade and contrasting this pattern with the inflation expectations of both households and professional forecasters, concluding that such expectations are formed rationally.
Economic Commentary , Issue May