Working Paper
Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures
Craig, Ben R.; Carlson, John B.; Melick, William R. (2005)
This paper demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC allows for a very straightforward recovery of the implied PDF using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. This simple recovery method stands in contrast to the relatively complicated PDF recovery techniques developed for options written on assets such as equities, foreign exchange, or commodity futures ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0507

Journal Article
Methods of cash management
Carlson, John B. (1982-04)
A description of cash management methods, covering collection, disbursement, and investment techniques. Topics include lock boxes, wire transfers, depository transfer checks, controlled disbursement, zero balancing, money-market instruments, and sweeping arrangements.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
A retrospective on the stock market in 2000
Carlson, John B.; Pelz, Eduard A. (2001-01)
During late 1998 and much of 1999, the price earnings ratio (P/E) of the S&P 500 index reached unprecedented levels. This was especially evident for the largest 18 technology firms, whose market-weighted P/E exceeded 125 in March of last year. These valuations, which dominated the NASDAQ, proved unsustainable. This Commentary reviews factors that affect P/E ratios and concludes that investors' expectations for earnings growth were overly optimistic, especially for large-cap technology stocks, and that investors could have known this before the bubble burst.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer
McIntire, Jean M.; Carlson, John B.; Thomson, James B. (1995-01)
An analysis of how federal funds futures markets are efficient processors of information concerning the future path of the fed funds rate and a discussion of some related implications for central-bank policymaking.
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 20-30

Journal Article
Where is all the U.S. currency hiding?
Keen, Benjamin D.; Carlson, John B. (1996-04)
An examination of the U.S. dollar's growing popularity abroad and a discussion of how the rising currency demand could affect U.S. economic policy.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Rules versus discretion: making a monetary rule operational
Carlson, John B. (1988-07)
A history and analysis of the debate about whether monetary policy should be conducted by rules known in advance to all or by policymaker discretion.
Economic Review , Volume 24 , Issue Q III , Pages 2-13

Journal Article
Why is the dividend yield so low?
Carlson, John B. (2001-04)
The dividend yield on stocks has dropped sharply over the last decade. Is its drop a consequence of irrational exuberance? This Commentary assesses alternative explanations for the diminished dividend yield.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Deregulation, money, and the economy
Carlson, John B. (1991-03)
An examination of the behavior of bank deposit yields and a discussion of some implications for deposit variability and for the interpretation of money growth in the wake of deregulation and other changes in the financial industry in the early 1980s.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
On disinflation since 1982: an application of change-point tests
Bryden, Edward J.; Carlson, John B. (1994-01)
An examination of recent changes in the statistical properties of alternative measures of core inflation, identifying statistically significant change points in the fixed mean and finding that for all measures considered, changes in the inflation rate trend have been infrequent and, for the most part, rather abrupt.
Economic Review , Volume 30 , Issue Q I , Pages 31-42

Journal Article
Public pensions under stress
Carlson, John B. (2012-04)
The financial crisis has made it all too clear that regulators failed to see into the dark corners of the financial system. With that in mind, the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Atlanta have formed a Financial Monitoring Team to study pension funds and municipal finance with an eye toward implications for the wider economy and financial system. What concerns should we have? In this article and other articles from this spring issue of Forefront, we explain where risks could be building and how reforms might help forestall their impact on the broader economy and financial system.
Forefront , Issue Spring , Pages 41 p.