Search Results
Journal Article
The short-run dynamics of long-run inflation policy
An examination of the short- and long-term implications of an inflation policy on real output, using a method that allows structural interpretation of a simple VAR applied to a macroeconomic system that includes real output and inflation.
Journal Article
Investor expectations and fundamentals: disappointment ahead?
The average annual return of the S&P 500 since 1994 has exceeded 25 percent. Confidence is high and investors are looking forward to continued above-average returns. The authors of this Economic Commentary attempt to reconcile investors' expectations with a decline in the equity premium, using a standard approach to stock-price valuation.
Journal Article
Productivity measures and the \\"new economy\\"
The U.S. economy's recent extraordinary performance has led some to claim that trend output growth is accelerating to a much higher rate than any we have experienced in a quarter century; they also maintain that the signs of productivity's acceleration have been masked by measurement problems. The authors, however, find scant evidence to support such claims.
Journal Article
Why the optimism?
In spite of the recent recession, hopes for the New Economy have been little daunted. Surprisingly robust productivity growth during the recent downturn provides compelling new evidence that something truly fundamental is going on. This Commentary argues that advances in information technology, and their diffusion through the economy, justify our optimism. Higher productivity growth is not an ephemeral phenomenon but one likely to persist for some time into the future, perhaps even accelerating further.
Journal Article
The national debt: a secular perspective
An examination of the various factors that have determined the level and growth of the federal debt over the past 40 years, with some perspective on future levels of federal debt.
Journal Article
An option for anticipating Fed action
Options contracts on federal funds futures, a new financial instrument introduced earlier this year, can be analyzed to gauge public expectations of future Fed actions. The real bonus is that they can detect differences of opinion when markets see more than two possible outcomes for an FOMC meeting as well as the likelihood associated with each.
Journal Article
Public pensions under stress
The financial crisis has made it all too clear that regulators failed to see into the dark corners of the financial system. With that in mind, the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Atlanta have formed a Financial Monitoring Team to study pension funds and municipal finance with an eye toward implications for the wider economy and financial system. What concerns should we have? In this article and other articles from this spring issue of Forefront, we explain where risks could be building and how reforms might help forestall their impact on the broader economy and financial system.
Journal Article
Accelerating money growth: is M2 telling us something?
A look at the recent acceleration in M2, examining evidence that its velocity has stabilized around a new trend, analyzing the usefulness of money in monetary policy deliberations, and highlighting some of the pitfalls of ignoring money growth.
Journal Article
Where is all the U.S. currency hiding?
An examination of the U.S. dollar's growing popularity abroad and a discussion of how the rising currency demand could affect U.S. economic policy.
Journal Article
The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?
An analysis of the current relationship between stock prices, dividends, earnings, and returns, aimed at examining the causes of the recent stock market surge. It reveals that the markets level cannot be explained by any single fundamental element of standard stock valuation models, but rather manifests optimism about future dividend growth (based on the present record growth in earnings) and a lower expected return (reflecting a diminished risk premium for holding equity).