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Author:Cajner, Tomaz 

Working Paper
Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Why More Educated Workers Enjoy Greater Employment Stability
Cairó, Isabel; Cajner, Tomaz (2014-02)
Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the data reveals that these workers have similar job finding rates, but much lower and less volatile separation rates than their less educated peers. We argue that on-the-job training, being complementary to formal education, is the reason for this pattern. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, we show that investments in match-specific human capital reduce the outside option of workers, implying less incentives to separate. The model generates ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-09

Working Paper
Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data
Cajner, Tomaz; Crane, Leland D.; Decker, Ryan A.; Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian; Kurz, Christopher J. (2019-09-05)
This paper combines information from two sources of U.S. private payroll employment to increase the accuracy of real-time measurement of the labor market. The sources are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from BLS and microdata from the payroll processing firm ADP. We briefly describe the ADP-derived data series, compare it to the BLS data, and describe an exercise that benchmarks the data series to an employment census. The CES and the ADP employment data are each derived from roughly equal-sized samples. We argue that combining CES and ADP data series reduces the measurement error ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-065

Working Paper
Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Smith, Christopher L.; Aaronson, Stephanie; Fallick, Bruce; Galbis-Reig, Felix; Wascher, William L.; Cajner, Tomaz (2014-09-10)
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1410

Discussion Paper
A Cautionary Note on the Help Wanted Online Data
Cajner, Tomaz; Ratner, David (2016-06-23)
Measuring labor demand is one of the crucial tasks in analyzing the labor market. In the case of the United States, two main data sources geared towards this objective are the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), administered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Conference Board Help Wanted Online series (HWOL). In this note we exploit the timing of Craigslist price increases by metropolitan area (MSA) to find their effect on online vacancy posting.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-06-23

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