Journal Article
Don't worry, we'll grow out of it: an analysis of demographics, consumer spending, and foreign debt
Byrne, Susan M.; Bryan, Michael F. (1990-10)
An analysis of the impact of the baby-boom generation's inrush into the work force on consumer spending, debt, and foreign investment, finding evidence that age demographics are a strong determinant of aggregate household consumption.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
The mythology of domestic content
Bryan, Michael F. (1983-06)
A commentary on free trade and the auto industry, with a discussion of the growth of Japanese auto imports, the cost and effect of import restrictions, and the probable effects of proposed domestic content legislation.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Working Paper
Monitoring core inflation
Bryan, Michael F.; Cecchetti, Stephen G. (1993)
An analysis of the use of limited-information estimators as measures of core inflation, showing that these estimators, such as the median of the cross-sectional distribution of inflation, have a higher correlation with past money growth and deliver improved forecasts of future inflation relative to the Consumer Price Index.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9304

Journal Article
The business cycle, investment and a wayward M2: a midyear review
Bryan, Michael F.; Erceg, John J. (1992-07)
A summary of the June 12, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which 22 panelists concurred that steady and moderate growth in the economy can be expected through late 1993; includes discussions on business fixed investment, monetary growth, and business cycle theory.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jul

Journal Article
Issues in the 1983 auto-sales outlook
Bryan, Michael F. (1983-03)
An analysis of the changing auto market and of factors affecting sales ( such as consumer income, costs, sticker shock, and affordability), plus a discussion of expectations of 1983 sales.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Year-end report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable
Martin, John B.; Bryan, Michael F. (1994-12)
A review of the November 3, 1994 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants offered their economic predictions for the coming year and discussed the interactions between seasonal cycles and business cycles.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Working Paper
Testing near-rationality using detailed survey data
Palmqvist, Stefan; Bryan, Michael F. (2005)
This paper considers the evidence of ?near-rationality,? as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000). Using detailed surveys of household inflation expectations for the United States and Sweden, we find that the data are generally unsupportive of the near-rationality hypothesis. However, we document that household inflation expectations tend to settle around discrete and largely fixed ?focal points,? suggesting that both U.S. and Swedish households gauge inflation prospects in rather broad, qualitative terms. Moreover, the combination of a low-inflation environment and an inflation ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0502

Journal Article
Report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable
Bryan, Michael F.; Martin, John B. (1994-01)
A summary of the 1994 forecasts for real output and inflation presented by 15 members of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable at their January 1994 meeting, highlighting the measurement of service sector prices and the role of small businesses in creating jobs.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan

Journal Article
The financial distress in American farming
Whalen, Gary; Bryan, Michael F. (1985-06)
An analysis of the uneven distribution of problem debt among the nation' s farmers, a discussion of the effect of this debt on agricultural banks, and an estimate of the probable impact of farm debt problems on the nation.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Comparing inflation expectations of households and economists: is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?
Bryan, Michael F.; Gavin, William T. (1986-07)
A comparison of the performance of forecasts by economists (the Livingston survey), households (the Michigan Survey of Consumer Finances), and a time series model (ARIMA).
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 14-19