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Working Paper
The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?
The purpose of this paper is to answer the three questions in the title. Using a large monthly survey of businesses, we investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat greater heterogeneity of expectations that we attribute to the idiosyncratic cost structure firms face. We also show that firm inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by ...
Journal Article
Will taxing imports help?
An examination of the possible impact on U.S. consumers and producers of placing an across-the-board tariff surcharge on imported goods.
Journal Article
Who is that guy on the $10 bill?
Alexander Hamilton is the least known and most misunderstood of our nation's founders. His contributions include creating a monetary standard, establishing our banking system, and ensuring the young nation's creditworthiness. This Economic Commentary explains how much of our financial strength we owe to Hamilton.
Journal Article
Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation
An analysis concluding that inflation measures based on median price changes are a better indicator than measures based on mean price changes.
Journal Article
Unemployment insurance: an old lesson for the new federalism?
An examination of America's unemployment insurance system, covering its origin and financing, its solvency problems, and the potential effects of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 as an example of what might be expected from defederalizing government programs.
Journal Article
Inflation and growth: working more vs. working better
An examination of how inflation reduces economic welfare by causing people to work harder.
Journal Article
Foreign capital inflows: another Trojan horse?
An analysis of the role of foreign investment in U.S. resource allocation, finding that the large influx of foreign capital in the 1980s has been used predominantly to fund domestic investment and consumer investment spending.
Journal Article
The business cycle, investment and a wayward M2: a midyear review
A summary of the June 12, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which 22 panelists concurred that steady and moderate growth in the economy can be expected through late 1993; includes discussions on business fixed investment, monetary growth, and business cycle theory.
Journal Article
Oil, the economy, and monetary policy
An examination of the theoretical impact of an oil shortage on the U.S. economy and the problems that such shortages present for monetary policy.
Journal Article
Anatomy of a price-fix
An analysis of a price-fixing scheme among retail food chains in the Cleveland, Ohio area that resulted in criminal charges and a $4.2 million fine against the perpetrators, plus a discussion of consumer damages involved in the case.