Search Results
Journal Article
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: Quantifying the Seventh District’s Beige Book Report
In this article, the authors describe a new survey methodology used by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in constructing the Seventh District?s Beige Book report called the Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC). The design of the survey allows the authors to create a new set of quantitative indexes that track economic activity in real time.
Working Paper
Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions
By incorporating the Harvey accumulator into the large approximate dynamic factor framework of Doz et al. (2006), we are able to construct a coincident index of financial conditions from a large unbalanced panel of mixed frequency financial indicators. We relate our financial conditions index, or FCI, to the concept of a "financial crisis" using Markov-switching techniques. After demonstrating the ability of the index to capture "crisis" periods in U.S. financial history, we present several policy-geared threshold rules for the FCI using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve ...
Newsletter
Tracking Detroit’s Economic Recovery After Bankruptcy with a New Index
This article presents evidence that Detroit?s economy is doing noticeably better than before the city filed for bankruptcy in July 2013. In order to track the city?s economic recovery following its bankruptcy, we use a new index that quantifies Detroit?s overall economic performance from 1998 to the present.
Working Paper
Federal Reserve policies and financial market conditions during the crisis
During the recent financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of extraordinary and unconventional policies to alleviate the impact of the crisis on financial markets and the economy. In this paper, we examine the effects of these policies on broad financial market conditions, explicitly taking into account that policy was endogenously determined in response to prevailing financial market and economic conditions. We find that the Fed was more likely to initiate or expand new programs when financial market conditions were tighter than usual and economic conditions deteriorating. ...
Journal Article
In search of a robust inflation forecast
It is difficult to consistently improve upon forecasts of inflation based solely on the most recent data on inflation. In this article, we show how to do so. Our main finding is that the most robust forecasts combine information from several different forecasting models, each of which incorporates the information in the available inflation indicators in different ways.
Newsletter
Estimating the trend in employment growth
For the unemployment rate to decline, the U.S. economy needs to generate above-trend job growth. We currently estimate trend employment growth to be around 80,000 jobs per month, and we expect it to decline over the remainder of the decade, due largely to changing labor force demographics and slower population growth.
Newsletter
Detecting early signs of financial instability
The authors analyze the usefulness of a new measure of nonfinancial leverage as an early warning indicator for financial instability and its consequences for economic growth.
Newsletter
Estimating the trend rate of economic growth using the CFNAI
This article shows how a new methodology for constructing the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) can be used to identify both the cyclical (medium-run) and trend (long-run) components of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Newsletter
Chicago Fed National Activity Index turns ten - analyzing its first decade of performance
This article discusses how the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has performed as a ?real-time? indicator of economic activity and related inflationary pressure.
Newsletter
How does labor adjustment in this recession compare with the past?
The authors examine how firms are adjusting their work force during the current recession in comparison with other recessions over the past 40 years.