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Discussion Paper
Lower Manhattan since 9/11: A Study in Resilience
Scally, Joelle; Bram, Jason (2016-10-19)
The 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center left a deep scar on New York City and the nation, most particularly in terms of the human toll. In addition to the lives lost and widespread health problems suffered by many others?in particular by first responders and recovery workers?the destruction of billions of dollars? worth of property and infrastructure led to severe disruptions to the local economy. Nowhere were these disruptions more severe and long-lasting than in the neighborhoods closest to Ground Zero.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161019

Discussion Paper
The Welfare Costs of Superstorm Sandy
Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A.; Abel, Jaison R. (2012-12-18)
As most of the New York metropolitan region begins to get back to normal following the devastation caused by superstorm Sandy, researchers and analysts are trying to assess the total ?economic cost? of the storm. But what, exactly, is meant by economic cost? Typically, those tallying up the economic cost of a disaster think of two types of costs: loss of capital (property damage and destruction) and loss of economic activity (caused by disruptions). But there is another important type of economic loss that often is not estimated or discussed in policymaking decisions: loss of welfare or ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121218

Discussion Paper
February Regional Business Surveys Find Widespread Supply Disruptions
Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2021-02-17)
Business activity increased in the region’s manufacturing sector in recent weeks but continued to decline in the region’s service sector, continuing a divergent trend seen over the past several months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February regional business surveys. Looking ahead, however, businesses expressed widespread optimism about the near-term outlook, with service firms increasingly confident that the business climate will be better in six months. The surveys also found that supply disruptions were widespread, with manufacturing firms reporting longer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210217a

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
Rich, Robert W.; Bram, Jason; Abel, Joshua (2013-09-04)
Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

Discussion Paper
Beginning to Gauge Maria’s Effect on Puerto Rico’s Economy
Thomas, Lauren; Bram, Jason (2018-01-12)
Just two weeks after most of Puerto Rico dodged the proverbial bullet, missing the brunt of Hurricane Irma, the island was devastated by Maria?one of the ten strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record. Making landfall on September 20, 2017, the storm caused not only massive physical destruction and tragic loss of life but also widespread and persistent power outages, shortages of potable (and even nonpotable) running water, and disruptions to telecommunications and travel, among other issues. With the storm boosting costs and disrupting activity, the short-term economic impact is clearly ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180112

Discussion Paper
The “Cadillac Tax”: Driving Firms to Change Their Plans?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bram, Jason; Dussault, Nicole (2016-02-29)
Since the 1940s, employers that provide health insurance for their employees can deduct the cost as a business expense, but the government does not treat the value of that coverage as taxable income. This exclusion of employer-provided health insurance from taxable income?$248 billion in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office?is a huge subsidy for health spending. Many economists cite the distortionary effects of this tax subsidy as an important reason for why U.S. health care spending accounts for such a large share of the economy and why spending historically has grown so ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160229

Discussion Paper
Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 in the Region
Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason; Abel, Jaison R.; Hastings, Jonathan (2020-08-27)
The New York Fed today unveiled a set of charts that track COVID-19 cases in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, which includes New York, Northern New Jersey, Fairfield County Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These charts, available in the Indicators section of our Regional Economy webpage, are updated daily with the latest data on confirmed COVID-19 cases from The New York Times, which compiles information from state and local health agencies. Case counts are measured as the seven-day average of new reported daily cases and are presented on a per capita basis to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200827

Discussion Paper
Puerto Rico Employment Trends–Not Quite as Bleak as They Appear
Bram, Jason (2014-02-14)
Puerto Rico’s economy has been in a protracted economic slump since 2006. If there were officially designated recessions for the Commonwealth, it probably would have been in one for the better part of these past seven years. Real GNP had fallen 12 percent before finally leveling off in 2012. But the economic measure most widely relied upon to gauge the island’s economy—because the data are monthly and timely—is payroll employment. Between early 2006 and the first half of 2011, this measure fell by a similar amount (13 percent); it then started to recover gradually in late 2011 and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140214

Discussion Paper
The Omicron Wave Stalled Growth and Led to High Absenteeism in the Region
Abel, Jaison R.; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2022-02-16)
Even before the start of the new year, businesses in the tri-state region were hampered by supply disruptions, rising input costs, and difficulty finding adequate staff. On top of these challenges, the Omicron wave dealt another setback to the regional economy. With infections running high, many businesses were forced to deal with a combination of reduced demand from customers and renewed absenteeism among workers. Indeed, our regional business surveys indicate that economic growth stalled in early 2022 as firms continued to struggle to find workers. Moreover, employee absenteeism was ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220216b

Journal Article
New York City's unemployment picture
Brauer, David A.; Bram, Jason; Miranda, Elizabeth (1997-12)
This issue of Second District Highlights briefly examines several explanations that have been offered for the rise in unemployment in New York City from 1994 to 1997.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 3 , Issue Dec

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