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Evolving leveraged loan covenants may pose novel transmission risk
An evolving change affecting the expanding, highly leveraged corporate loan sector may impact how the economy responds to adverse shocks.
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How Interest Rate Changes Affect Credit Card Spending
The response of credit card spending to interest rate changes has significant implications for how monetary policy affects consumer spending and therefore the broader economy because credit cards have become a dominant payment method in the United States. However, the aggregate effect masks important differences across types of cardholders. As the authors show, the impact of interest rate changes on individual consumers depends critically on whether they carry a balance on their card, and it depends on their credit score, indicating that different segments of the population respond ...
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Uncovering covered interest parity: the role of bank regulation and monetary policy
We analyze the factors underlying the recent deviations from covered interest parity. We show that these deviations can be explained by tighter post-crisis bank capital regulations that made the provision of foreign exchange swaps more costly. Moreover, the recent monetary policy and related interest rate divergence between the United States and other major foreign countries has led to a surge in demand for swapping low interest rate currencies into the U.S. dollar. Given the higher bank balance sheet costs resulting from these regulatory changes, the increased demand for U.S. dollars in the ...
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The liquidity effect of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction on short-term interest rates
I examine the impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction on short-term interest rates emanating from the declining supply of reserve balances. Using an exogenous shift in the supply of reserves, I estimate that by January 2019, when the Fed will have reduced its portfolio by $500 billion, the overnight repurchase agreement (repo) spread (relative to the lower bound of the federal funds target range) will be 10 basis points higher and the fed funds spread will be 2 basis points higher than in October 2017, all else being equal. I also find that a declining supply of reserve ...
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Stress testing effects on portfolio similarities among large US Banks
We use an expansive regulatory loan-level dataset to analyze how the portfolios of the largest US banks have evolved since 2011. In particular, we analyze how the commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loan portfolios have changed in response to stress-testing requirements stipulated in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. We find that the largest US banks, which are subject to stress testing, have become more similar since the current form of the stress testing was implemented in 2011. We also find that banks with poor stress test results tend to adjust their portfolios in a way that makes ...
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The Great Leverage 2.0? A Tale of Different Indicators of Corporate Leverage
Many policymakers have expressed concerns about the rise in nonfinancial corporate leverage and the risks this poses to financial stability, since (1) high leverage raises the odds of firms becoming a source of adverse shocks, and (2) high leverage amplifies the role of firms in propagating other adverse shocks. This policy brief examines alternative indicators of leverage, focusing especially on the somewhat disparate signals they send regarding the current state of indebtedness of nonfinancial corporate businesses. Even though the aggregate nonfinancial corporate debt-to-income ratio is at ...
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Corporate Debt Maturity and Monetary Policy
Do firms lengthen the maturity of their borrowing following a flattening of the Treasury yield curve that results from monetary policy operations? We explore this question separately for the years before and during the zero lower bound (ZLB) period, recognizing that the same change in the yield curve slope signifies different states of the economy and monetary policy over the two regimes. We find that the answer is robustly yes for the pre-ZLB period: Firms extended the maturity of their bond issuance by nearly three years in response to a policy-induced reduction of 1 percentage point in the ...
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Uptake of the Main Street Lending Program
The Main Street Lending Program (Main Street) was one of several new credit facilities launched by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve published draft terms for Main Street on April 9, 2020, and the program started purchasing loan participations on July 6, 2020, with the goal of supporting lending to a wide range of small and medium-sized businesses that were in sound financial condition before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. When the program’s draft terms were first circulated, pandemic-related ...
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A Helping Hand to Main Street Where and When It Was Needed
This paper investigates the lending activity of the Main Street Lending Program, which the Federal Reserve established at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020. Main Street was the largest (by total principal outstanding) of the Federal Reserve's emergency credit and liquidity facilities. The authors find fairly robust evidence that Main Street accomplished its key goal of directing more funds where and when they were most needed. Businesses located in states with more severe declines in commercial activity (as proxied by mobility indicators) and higher infection rates obtained a ...
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Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy
The US economy is at least 50 percent more concentrated today than it was in 2005. In this paper, we estimate the effect of this increase on the pass-through of cost shocks into prices. Our estimates imply that the pass-through becomes about 25 percentage points greater when there is an increase in concentration similar to the one observed since the beginning of this century. The resulting above-trend price growth lasts for about four quarters. Our findings suggest that the increase in industry concentration over the past two decades could be amplifying the inflationary pressure from current ...