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Report
800,000 Years of Climate Risk
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico; Prasad, Ananthakrishnan; Seneviratne, Dulani; Xiao, Yanzhe (2022-09-01)
We use a long history of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to estimate the conditional joint evolution of temperature and CO2 at a millennial frequency. We document three basic facts. First, the temperature–CO2 dynamics are non-linear, so that large deviations in either temperature or CO2 concentrations take a long time to correct–on the scale of multiple millennia. Second, the joint dynamics of temperature and CO2 concentrations exhibit multimodality around historical turning points in temperature and concentration cycles, so that prior to the start of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1031

Report
Taking orders and taking notes: dealer information sharing in financial markets
Boyarchenko, Nina; Lucca, David O.; Veldkamp, Laura (2015-04-01)
The use of order flow information by financial firms has come to the forefront of the regulatory debate. Central to this discussion is whether a dealer who acquires information by taking client orders can share that information. We explore how information sharing affects dealers, clients, and issuer revenues in U.S. Treasury auctions. Because one cannot observe alternative information regimes, we build a model, calibrate it to auction results data, and use it to quantify counterfactuals. We estimate that yearly auction revenues with full information sharing (with clients and between dealers) ...
Staff Reports , Paper 726

Report
Corporate Debt Structure over the Global Credit Cycle
Boyarchenko, Nina; Elias, Leonardo (2024-12-01)
We study the determinants of active debt management through issuance and refinancing decisions for firms around the world. We leverage instrument-level data to create a comprehensive picture of the maturity, currency, and security type composition of firms' debt for a large cross-section of countries. At the instrument level, we estimate a predictive model of prepayment as a function of interest costs savings and maturity lengthening motives. We document that there is substantial heterogeneity in prepayment across bonds and loans and across firms, depending on their reliance on bank lending. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1139

Report
Understanding mortgage spreads
Boyarchenko, Nina; Lucca, David O.; Fuster, Andreas (2014-05-01)
Most mortgages in the U.S. are securitized in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Yield spreads on these securities are thus a key determinant of homeowners? funding costs. We study variation in MBS spreads over time and across securities, and document a cross-sectional smile pattern in MBS spreads with respect to the securities? coupon rates. We propose non-interest-rate prepayment risk as a candidate driver of MBS spread variation and present a new pricing model that uses ?stripped? MBS prices to identify the contribution of this prepayment risk to the spread. The pricing model finds ...
Staff Reports , Paper 674

Discussion Paper
How Has Post-Crisis Banking Regulation Affected Hedge Funds and Prime Brokers?
Boyarchenko, Nina; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Gupta, Pooja; Shachar, Or; Van Tassel, Peter (2020-10-19)
“Arbitrageurs” such as hedge funds play a key role in the efficiency of financial markets. They compare closely related assets, then buy the relatively cheap one and sell the relatively expensive one, thereby driving the prices of the assets closer together. For executing trades and other services, hedge funds rely on prime brokers and broker-dealers. In a previous Liberty Street Economics blog post, we argued that post-crisis changes to regulation and market structure have increased the costs of arbitrage activity, potentially contributing to the persistent deviations in the prices of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201019

Report
Liquidity policies and systemic risk
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2014-12-01)
The growth of wholesale-funded credit intermediation has motivated liquidity regulations. We analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which liquidity and capital regulations interact with the supply of risk-free assets. In the model, the endogenously time-varying tightness of liquidity and capital constraints generates intermediaries? leverage cycle, influencing the pricing of risk and the level of risk in the economy. Our analysis focuses on liquidity policies? implications for household welfare. Within the context of our model, liquidity requirements are preferable to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 661

Working Paper
Corporate Bond Market Distress
Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or (2024-09)
We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even ...
Working Paper , Paper 24-09

Report
Financing Private Credit
Boyarchenko, Nina; Elias, Leonardo (2024-08-01)
Using data on balance sheets of both financial and nonfinancial sectors of the economy, we use a “demand system” approach to study how lender composition and willingness to provide credit affect the relationship between credit expansions and real activity. A key advantage of jointly modeling the demand for and supply of credit is the ability to evaluate equilibrium elasticities of credit quantities with respect to variables of interest. We document that the sectoral composition of lenders financing a credit expansion is a key determinant for subsequent real activity and crisis ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1111

Discussion Paper
How Is the Corporate Bond Market Functioning as Interest Rates Increase?
Kovner, Anna; Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Shachar, Or (2022-11-30)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has increased the target interest rate by 3.75 percentage points since March 17, 2022. In this post we examine how corporate bond market functioning has evolved along with the changes in monetary policy through the lens of the U.S. Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). We compare this evolution to the 2015 tightening cycle for context on how bond market conditions have evolved as rates increase. The overall CMDI has deteriorated but remains close to historical medians. The investment-grade CMDI index has deteriorated more than the high-yield, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20221130

Discussion Paper
The Evolving Market for U.S. Sovereign Credit Risk
Boyarchenko, Nina; Shachar, Or (2020-01-06)
How should we measure market expectations of the U.S. government failing to meet its debt obligations and thereby defaulting? A natural candidate would be to use the spreads on U.S. sovereign single-name credit default swaps (CDS): since a CDS provides insurance to the buyer for the possibility of default, an increase in the CDS spread would indicate an increase in the market-perceived probability of a credit event occurring. In this post, we argue that aggregate measures of activity in U.S. sovereign CDS mask a decrease in risk-forming transactions after 2014. That is, quoted CDS spreads in ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200106

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