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Working Paper
Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?
U.S. monetary-policy decisions are made by the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Seven of these members, coming from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, inherently represent national-level interests. The remaining five members, a rotating group of presidents from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, come instead from sub-national jurisdictions. Does this structure have relevant implications for the monetary policy-making process? In this paper, we first build a panel dataset on economic activity across Fed districts. We then provide evidence that regional ...
Journal Article
Why Are Overall Profits Outpacing Financing Costs?
Since the 1980s, decreasing interest rates have reduced the cost of financing for publicly traded corporations, which in turn has lowered their cost of capital by more than a third. Data show that their profits have likewise declined. At the same time, however, economy-wide corporate profits have increased substantially. Combining these data indicates that the increase in profits has instead gone to privately held companies. This implies that private companies have either increased their market power or their risk.
Journal Article
Global Market Discipline during Recent Policy Tightening
Financial market discipline, in the form of movements in yields charged on sovereign debt of emerging economies, during the 2021 onset of U.S. monetary policy tightening depended heavily on domestic economic conditions. This pattern matches yield movements during the 2013 taper tantrum. The pattern suggests that, while advanced economy policies can influence emerging market financial conditions, domestic policies such as government spending levels are also important. However, the differing responses for pandemic-related spending versus the overall current account suggest that markets ...