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Breaking Down the Contributors to High Inflation
Sharp increases in prices of durable and nondurable goods have been behind the recent rise in U.S. inflation.
Journal Article
The Wage Bills of COVID-19
The largest potential wage loss comes from the health care and social assistance industry.
Journal Article
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics
A large literature has argued that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices than to decreases in oil prices. Moreover, some of this literature has found heterogeneous asymmetry in gas price responses across cities. Here, we reconsider the causes of heterogeneous asymmetric pass-through. Consistent with the previous literature, we find heterogeneity in the magnitudes of asymmetric pass-through across cities. We also find a large number of cities that exhibit no asymmetries. We then examine whether heterogeneous asymmetry results from city-level differences in (i) the ...
Journal Article
Same Target, Different Economies: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inflation
Though some countries adopt a common inflation target, nations often have different patterns of inflation.
Journal Article
On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts
Inflation expectations constitute important components of macroeconomic models and monetary policy rules. We investigate the relative performance of consumer, professional, market-based, and model-based inflation forecasts. Consistent with the previous literature, professional forecasts most accurately predict one-year-ahead year-over-year inflation. Both consumers and professionals overestimate inflation over their respective sample periods. Market-based forecasts as measured by the swap market breakeven inflation rates significantly overestimate actual inflation; Treasury ...
More Households Face Food Scarcity during COVID-19
More U.S. households are reporting that they sometimes or often do not have enough food, according to a new Census survey.
What Drives Changes in Inflation?
Examining the inflationary trends of key components of the PCE price index can help provide insight into recent movements in consumer prices.
Why the Same Inflation Target May Not Fit All Countries
The central banks of many advanced economies have adopted an inflation target at around 2%. But should they use the same target?
St. Louis Fed Research Associates Discuss Work and Experiences
RAs help the St. Louis Fed’s staff of economists investigate topics ranging from productivity to unemployment.
Journal Article
The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19
The CARES act provides an extra $600 per week in unemployment benefits, but the purchasing power of those dollars varies across states, raising the question of whether the equal distribution of $600 across states is an equitable distribution.