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Working Paper
Risk aversion and weekly money: does the market expect the Fed to offset large increases in M1?
The risk premium hypothesis suggests that absolute changes in short-term interest rates will be larger if the unanticipated component of the Federal Reserve's weekly money supply announcement is positive. Statistical tests suggest, however, that the magnitude of interest rate changes are unrelated to the sign of monetary surprises.
Working Paper
Estimates of the link between variable money growth and GNP: a supplement to Mascaro and Meltzer
Mascaro and Meltzer have implied, but not tested, that increased uncertainty about monetary policy will reduce real income. This proposition is tested directly by adding a. Kalman filter estimate of monetary uncertainty to a St. Louis-type GNP equation. The results indicate that -increased uncertainty about monetary policy has permanent negative effects on both the level and growth rate of GNP.
Working Paper
The money supply announcements puzzle: a comment
Working Paper
Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability
Conventional investigations of the "best" intermediate target variable for monetary policy have used a single criterion: the best fit between the behavior of an aggregate and that of some goal variable such as nominal spending or the aggregate price level. Ignored in this type of study, however, is the ability of the central bank to control the behavior of the aggregate which has the best fit relative to the goal variable. This paper treats the issue of monetary control explicitly and selects an intermediate target variable on the basis of a joint criterion of monetary control and ...
Working Paper
An admissible monetary aggregate for the United Kingdom