Search Results
Journal Article
Decomposing inflation
As U.S. core inflation measures have declined in recent years, analysts have renewed their efforts to understand inflation dynamics. A common approach to this issue is to make inferences about how price changes of major components affect the aggregate inflation rate. This article takes a more rigorous approach, calculating and plotting the precise contributions of major consumer expenditure categories to core inflation measures over time. ; This technique has distinct advantages. It highlights the underlying trends in inflation, enabling analysts to make more informed inferences about the ...
Working Paper
Examining contributions to core consumer inflation measures
The purpose of this paper is to examine the composition of inflation over time. The authors calculate the contributions to inflation for individual series of the consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) and then aggregate those contributions into major consumer expenditure categories. This technique provides a wealth of information concerning aggregate inflation behavior in a concise way, enabling the authors to describe the composition of inflation at any point in time. A particularly important benefit of this method is that it allows them to ...
Journal Article
District digest: The Federal presence in the Fifth District
Economic trends across the region, pg. 52-55 compiled by Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Journal Article
Understanding Recent Trends in Labor Market Participation
District Digest: Understanding Recent Trends in Labor Market Participation
Briefing
Where are households in the deleveraging cycle?
The ratio of household debt to disposable personal income fell rapidly during the recession of 2007-09 as consumers defaulted on loans, paid down debt, and took out fewer loans. According to some economists, this household debt reduction ? "deleveraging" ? has constrained consumer spending, contributing to a longer, deeper recession and a slower recovery. As households strengthen their balance sheets, their ability to take on new debt to finance consumption is improving, but household debt remains elevated by historical standards, and other determinants of consumer spending remain weak.
Journal Article
Post-Recession Labor Market Trends in the Fifth District
Journal Article
District digest: Economic trends across the region
Related Link:> https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2013/q1/ef_q1_districtchart.jpg
Journal Article
District digest : Economic trends across the region
"The Roles of New and Existing Establishments in Employment in the Fifth District," article by R. Andrew Bauer, pg. 36-39
Working Paper
Using the Kalman filter to smooth the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
This paper shows how to use the Kalman filter (Kalman 1960) to back out the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In particular, we use the smoothing algorithm as described in Hamilton (1994) to estimate the shocks of a sticky-prices and sticky-wages model using all the information up to the end of the sample.
Journal Article
Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys
If economic forecasts are to be used for decision making, then being able to evaluate their accuracy is essential. Assessing accuracy using single variables from a forecast is acceptable as a first pass, but this approach has inherent problems. This article addresses some of these problems by evaluating and comparing the general accuracy of a set of multivariate forecasts over time. ; Using the methodology developed in Eisenbeis, Waggoner, and Zha (2002), the authors compare the economic forecasts in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators Survey. The survey, published monthly since 1977, contains ...