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Working Paper
Lag length selection and Granger causality
Working Paper
Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market
Changes in the discount rate can have an associated announcement effect on the foreign exchange value of the dollar only if these changes are not anticipated by the market. This paper provides evidence to support this contention. Specifically, discount rate changes made for reasons other than technical adjustments have not been anticipated fully and consequently, their announcement has had a significant impact on the dollar's exchange rate. Furthermore, results are obtained that support the hypothesis that unanticipated discount rate changes alter the expectation of the rate of future ...
Working Paper
The Andersen-Jordan equation, revisited
Working Paper
Lag-length selection criteria: empirical results from the St. Louis equation
This article describes and compares six criteria for determining the lag length of finite distributed lag models. These criteria are employed to select the lag length of the distributed lag variables within the St. Louis equation using a computationally efficient procedure. The lag lengths chosen are tested against each other and against arbitrarily overfitted and underfitted specifications. The results suggest that Akaike's final prediction error criterion and Pagano and Hartley's procedure perform well relative to the other criteria considered.
Working Paper
What do Almon's endpoint constraints constrain?
In this paper we show that Almon's (1965) endpoint constraints do not constrain the endpoints, as commonly thought. In particular, the endpoints are not constrained to equal zero. Consequently, these constraints have neither a basis in economic theory nor the econometric justification frequently ascribed to them.