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Speech
2025 Economic Outlook
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
Journal Article
What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close
President's Message: What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close
Speech
How Did the Economy Get Here?
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.As a consequence, the FOMC has started the process of recalibrating rates to somewhat less restrictive levels.Tomorrow looks different based on whether you take more signal from levels or trends.With the economy now in a good place and interest rates off their recent peak but also off their historic lows, the Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.
Journal Article
President's Message: Bringing Talent to Small Towns
Over the last few decades, we've seen small towns struggle, particularly those that lost manufacturers, which had historically helped build communities, employ residents, and forge local identities. As a natural reaction, economic development in small-town America has often focused on replacing those big employers. These efforts attracted investment, but success wasn't easy.
Journal Article
President's Message: Flexible Work and Women's Participation
When COVID-19 hit in 2020, one of the many shocks families faced was the closing of schools and child care centers. In many families, the burden of dealing with such shocks was disproportionately borne by the mom — so this sudden change hit women's labor force participation hard. Commentators labeled it a "she-cession."
Journal Article
President's Message: A Labor Drought?
Following the economic pain of the pandemic, the economy has bounced back, supported by historic levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Unemployment has dropped and is now basically at pre-pandemic levels. Yet labor force participation has been slow to return.
Journal Article
President's Message: A Shift in the Inflation Winds?
At the Fed, a lot of work has gone into anchoring inflation expectations in recent decades. As a result, our economy has seen, from the early 1980s until last year, an era of remarkably low and stable inflation — sometimes called "the Great Moderation."
Journal Article
President's Message: The Great Job Reshuffling
Hiring has become easier than it was early last year. Yet everywhere I go, from farms to factories to ballparks, I still hear that labor is in short supply. And the numbers back this up: In February 2020, 61.1 percent of the population was employed. Today, that number is down 0.9 percentage points — equivalent to nearly 2.3 million fewer workers.If good workers remain hard to find, wages could rise further, pressuring margins and prices in turn. So it's important to understand what's happening in the labor market, and where it may go from here.
Journal Article
President's Message: Zooming in on Community Colleges
Even as overall labor market conditions have normalized over the past year, employers in the skilled trades continue to report a lack of available workers. The overall supply of workers has improved, but the supply of workers with the right skills remains limited.Employers are not the only parties invested in strengthening the talent pipeline. Communities recognize that to be competitive, they need a strong workforce.
Journal Article
What’s Happening to Productivity Growth?
President's Message: What?s Happening to Productivity Growth?