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Author:Barkin, Tom 

Speech
2025 Economic Outlook

A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
Speech

Journal Article
What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close

President's Message: What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 1-1

Speech
How Did the Economy Get Here?

A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.As a consequence, the FOMC has started the process of recalibrating rates to somewhat less restrictive levels.Tomorrow looks different based on whether you take more signal from levels or trends.With the economy now in a good place and interest rates off their recent peak but also off their historic lows, the Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.
Speech

Journal Article
President's Message: Bringing Talent to Small Towns

Over the last few decades, we've seen small towns struggle, particularly those that lost manufacturers, which had historically helped build communities, employ residents, and forge local identities. As a natural reaction, economic development in small-town America has often focused on replacing those big employers. These efforts attracted investment, but success wasn't easy.
Econ Focus , Volume 23 , Issue 3Q , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
President's Message: Flexible Work and Women's Participation

When COVID-19 hit in 2020, one of the many shocks families faced was the closing of schools and child care centers. In many families, the burden of dealing with such shocks was disproportionately borne by the mom — so this sudden change hit women's labor force participation hard. Commentators labeled it a "she-cession."
Econ Focus , Volume 24 , Issue 3Q , Pages 1

Speech
What’s Next for the Economy?

We’ve come a long way quickly, but the job isn’t done. Inflation remains too high.There is an unusually wide range of potential paths for the economy going forward — from resurgence to soft landing to recession.What path do I see? I do anticipate some sort of a slowdown. I see that slowing as part of what it takes to bring inflation back to target. Price setters need to be convinced.Whether a slowdown that settles inflation requires more from us remains to be seen. We have time to reconcile competing narratives on demand and to test different views on the trajectory of inflation.
Speech

Speech
Looking Beyond Recent Data

I am still looking to be convinced, both that demand is settling and that any weakness is feeding through to inflation.I don’t like depending solely on data. That’s why I’ve made it my priority to be on the ground every week in the hopes of understanding the economy better.There is somewhat of a disconnect between the data and what I hear on the ground. I see an economy that is much further along the path to demand normalization than much of the data would tell you.But the question is how much of this softening is feeding through to inflation. The path for inflation isn’t yet ...
Speech

Speech
The Inflation Story

Inflation has proven stubbornly persistent.There is a plausible story for how inflation comes down. That story relies on weakening demand to control inflation.I am still looking to be convinced, both that demand is settling and that any weakness is feeding through to inflation. We will learn a lot more over the next few months.The Fed has moved aggressively against inflation. But we have been moderating the pace of those increases. Think of it as slowing your boat as you approach the dock.If coming data doesn’t support the plausible story, I’m comfortable doing more. The experience of the ...
Speech

Speech
Bringing Talent to Small Towns

As I talk to employers considering expansions and as I talk to community leaders trying to recruit firms, there's an increasing focus on talent.Small towns are going to have to up their games on the attraction, development and retention of talent.Small towns in our district are recruiting talent like they cultivate employers: they are telling their stories, making moving easy, creating incentives and strengthening their homegrown workforce pipelines.
Speech

Speech
The Need to Be Nimble

The challenge in assessing today’s economy is reconciling the strength of the recent data with the potential for weakness coming from the banking system.It is possible that tightening credit conditions, along with the lagged effect of our rate moves, will bring inflation down relatively quickly. But I still think it could take time for inflation to return to target.Policy will need to be nimble. If inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further. If I am wrong about the pricing dynamics at play, or about credit conditions, then we can respond appropriately.
Speech

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