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Speech
2025 Economic Outlook
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
Journal Article
What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close
President's Message: What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close
Speech
How Did the Economy Get Here?
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.As a consequence, the FOMC has started the process of recalibrating rates to somewhat less restrictive levels.Tomorrow looks different based on whether you take more signal from levels or trends.With the economy now in a good place and interest rates off their recent peak but also off their historic lows, the Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.
Journal Article
President's Message: Bringing Talent to Small Towns
Over the last few decades, we've seen small towns struggle, particularly those that lost manufacturers, which had historically helped build communities, employ residents, and forge local identities. As a natural reaction, economic development in small-town America has often focused on replacing those big employers. These efforts attracted investment, but success wasn't easy.
Journal Article
President's Message: Flexible Work and Women's Participation
When COVID-19 hit in 2020, one of the many shocks families faced was the closing of schools and child care centers. In many families, the burden of dealing with such shocks was disproportionately borne by the mom — so this sudden change hit women's labor force participation hard. Commentators labeled it a "she-cession."
Journal Article
A Unique Moment for Small Towns
Every month, I visit small towns and hear from business and community leaders about what’s working, what’s not working, and what they need. In my previous column, I looked at the key elements I’ve seen in every small town that has made major progress toward revitalization: a story, regional cooperation, and dedicated funding, all tied together by “scrappiness.” (See “Making It Work,” Econ Focus, First Quarter 2022.) Now, I’d like to take a deeper dive into the issue of funding, because money is the one critical constraint every community faces, across every issue.
Briefing
President's Message: A Unique Moment for Small Towns
Every month, I visit small towns and hear from business and community leaders about what's working, what's not working, and what they need. In my previous column, I looked at the key elements I've seen in every small town that has made major progress toward revitalization: a story, regional cooperation, and dedicated funding, all tied together by "scrappiness." (See "Making It Work," Econ Focus, First Quarter 2022.) Now, I'd like to take a deeper dive into the issue of funding, because money is the one critical constraint every community faces, across every issue.
Speech
Inflation Then and Now
Labor market conditions remain solid, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. It makes sense to stay modestly restrictive until we are more confident inflation is returning to our 2 percent target.I recognize the fight against inflation has been long. But it is critical that we remain steadfast.It is tempting to focus on gaming out short-term factors, but it’s hard to make significant monetary policy changes amidst such uncertainty. So, I prefer to wait and see how this uncertainty plays out and how the economy responds.
Speech
What’s Next for the Economy?
We’ve come a long way quickly, but the job isn’t done. Inflation remains too high.There is an unusually wide range of potential paths for the economy going forward — from resurgence to soft landing to recession.What path do I see? I do anticipate some sort of a slowdown. I see that slowing as part of what it takes to bring inflation back to target. Price setters need to be convinced.Whether a slowdown that settles inflation requires more from us remains to be seen. We have time to reconcile competing narratives on demand and to test different views on the trajectory of inflation.
Speech
Looking Beyond Recent Data
I am still looking to be convinced, both that demand is settling and that any weakness is feeding through to inflation.I don’t like depending solely on data. That’s why I’ve made it my priority to be on the ground every week in the hopes of understanding the economy better.There is somewhat of a disconnect between the data and what I hear on the ground. I see an economy that is much further along the path to demand normalization than much of the data would tell you.But the question is how much of this softening is feeding through to inflation. The path for inflation isn’t yet ...