Search Results
Journal Article
Business Short-Termism and Monetary Policy
President's Message: Business Short-Termism and Monetary Policy
Journal Article
President's Message: A Forecasting Personality Test
Contrary to most forecasts, including my own, the economy finished 2023 strong. Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, came down all the way to 2.6 percent. At the same time, despite higher interest rates, global conflicts, and banking turmoil, economic growth was healthy and unemployment was near historic lows.But early 2024 data has been a little less easy to read, with inflation elevated and consumer spending coming in softer, while the labor market has remained quite strong. So it's easy to see why people might differ on the path forward for the ...
Journal Article
What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close
President's Message: What's Lost when Rural Hospitals Close
Journal Article
President's Message: Flexible Work and Women's Participation
When COVID-19 hit in 2020, one of the many shocks families faced was the closing of schools and child care centers. In many families, the burden of dealing with such shocks was disproportionately borne by the mom — so this sudden change hit women's labor force participation hard. Commentators labeled it a "she-cession."
Journal Article
President's Message: A Shift in the Inflation Winds?
At the Fed, a lot of work has gone into anchoring inflation expectations in recent decades. As a result, our economy has seen, from the early 1980s until last year, an era of remarkably low and stable inflation — sometimes called "the Great Moderation."
Journal Article
A Unique Moment for Small Towns
Every month, I visit small towns and hear from business and community leaders about what’s working, what’s not working, and what they need. In my previous column, I looked at the key elements I’ve seen in every small town that has made major progress toward revitalization: a story, regional cooperation, and dedicated funding, all tied together by “scrappiness.” (See “Making It Work,” Econ Focus, First Quarter 2022.) Now, I’d like to take a deeper dive into the issue of funding, because money is the one critical constraint every community faces, across every issue.
Journal Article
President's Message: The Great Job Reshuffling
Hiring has become easier than it was early last year. Yet everywhere I go, from farms to factories to ballparks, I still hear that labor is in short supply. And the numbers back this up: In February 2020, 61.1 percent of the population was employed. Today, that number is down 0.9 percentage points — equivalent to nearly 2.3 million fewer workers.If good workers remain hard to find, wages could rise further, pressuring margins and prices in turn. So it's important to understand what's happening in the labor market, and where it may go from here.
Speech
2025 Economic Outlook
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
Journal Article
Taxes and the Fed
Journal Article
President's Message: Learning From Our District
My Richmond Fed colleagues and I are on the ground in our district constantly, meeting and learning from community members. Last year, we had over 1,700 such engagements — with bankers, business and community leaders, workers, and public officials. These meetings take us to every corner of the states we serve.