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Report
Systemic Cyber Risk
We propose a quantitative framework to track systemic risk arising from cyber vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system. Synthesizing financial, economic, cyber, and network data that covers thousands of financial institutions and technological firms, we develop an index that tracks financial-system-level cyber vulnerability (SCV) for the financial system. Geopolitical risk, ransomware and malware incidents, and seasonal factors significantly drive the estimated adversarial component. Estimated technological and financial components exhibit fat tails in the distribution. In the ...
Working Paper
Preventing Controversial Catastrophes
In a market-based democracy, we model different constituencies that disagree regarding the likelihood of economic disasters. Costly public policy initiatives to reduce or eliminate disasters are assessed relative to private alternatives presented by financial markets. Demand for such public policies falls as much as 40% with disagreement, and crowding out by private insurance drives most of the reduction. As support for disaster-reducing policy jumps in periods of disasters, costly policies may be adopted only after disasters occur. In some scenarios constituencies may even demand policies ...